TSXV:UI - Post Discussion
Post by
Torontojay on Nov 29, 2022 8:34am
The Nahb forecast and expected job losses
The National Association of Home builders has dropped for the 11th straight month to 33 which is the lowest level since June 12 and it is a leading indicator for market sentiment over the next 6 months. A lower reading forecasts lower housing starts which inevitably leads to job losses. The current unemployment rate in the US is 3.7%. There are 153.3m non farm payrolls as of Oct and approximately 10m workers in residential construction. If one goes back to 2012 when the Nhab had a similar reading, there were 7 million jobs in the industry. By my estimate, there will be about 3 million job losses and the unemployment rate should jump to at least 5.5% by the end of next year. I think it's reasonable to assume an unemployment rate of between 5.5 % and 6.5% as other industries will feel the impact. My prediction is for a recession to begin between Q1 and Q3 of next year. The job losses will extend into 2024 but the markets will likely turn positive before this happens.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/193094/employment-in-production-within-us-construction-since-1996/
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/11/16/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-declines-for-11-consecutive-months
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