Urbanimmersive Inc V.UI

Real estate board of Vancouver

[Torontojay]

VANCOUVER — The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver says January home sales were more than halved from the year before and down 21 per cent from December.

The board says sales for the month totalled 1,022, a 55 per cent drop from the prior January.

The number of homes that changed hands last month was also 42.9 per cent below the 10-year January sales average.
 

The board attributed the quiet month to mortgage rates, which have risen rapidly over the last year and weighed on homebuyer intentions.

It found the region's composite benchmark price was more than $1.1 million, a 6.6 per cent decrease over January 2022 and a 0.3 per cent fall compared with December 2022.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on its listing service is 7,478, a 32.1 per cent increase compared with January 2022 and a 1.3 per cent increase compared with December 2022.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 2, 2023.

[redcoats]

About the same in Victoria: https://www.timescolonist.com/business/greater-victoria-real-estate-market-limps-into-2023-6474050 But do you see the really interesting part? In your article, about Vancouver:  "The total number of homes currently listed for sale on its listing service is 7,478, a 32.1 per cent increase compared with January 2022 and a 1.3 per cent increase compared with

[Torontojay]

The key metric to look at is "new listings" and this is down BIG time due to the fact that people don't want to put their houses up for sale with new mortgage rates. They will delay as much as possible.  The fact that you mentioned active listings has increased only validates that homes are sitting on the market. You are looking at the wrong metric permabull.   

[kaykay22222]

Toronto you are wrong, the real estate market has bottomed. 30y Rates are going to 5%. New listings gap to last year is closing. We need actove listings to go back to 2m in US. Powell said only the job market is not in balance yet.

[Torontojay]

No. I don't believe I'm wrong.  The drop in unemployment to 3.4% in the US has me very convinced we will have a recession. This puts upward pressure on interest rates.  I would not be surprised to see Fed funds in the 5.25- 5.5% at the terminal rate.   

[Torontojay]

  Let me also say one other thing.  The lower unemployment, the longer the delay for the Fed to drop interest rates which implies high mortgage rates and elevated long term duration bonds. This is not the type of news that is positive for Urbanimmersive shareholders. It just implies that we're in this mess for a lot longer.  Another thing to keep in mind is that non farm

[kaykay22222]

Never ever do we want Mortgage rates at or below 3% again (buying frenzy) Look at pre-covid 4-5%, which is healthy for UI's business model. I agree with you on the job market, those are weak part-time jobs, not white collar. 2021-22 people bought there secobd and third homes, which thwy now have to give up.

[Torontojay]

  4-5% mortgage rates would be healthy for the real estate industry but the only problem is the affordability of homes today and pre covid is vastly different. There are a lot of buyers that are simply priced out of the market even at prevailing interest rates. The S&P core logic case Shiller national home prices declined for a 5th consecutive month and is now down 5.37%. I expect that

[kaykay22222]

Hey toronto, we don't seem to be that far apart, we just differ in the timing.  Since Home Visit, the US market has been important for UI, and I check the main macro variables weekly at Realtor.com.  New listings gap to last year is shrinking. Have a nice sunday! https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-jan-28-2023/ 

[Torontojay]

I'm the realist and Kaykay is the optimist shareholder.  Rates are far away from 5% and this post was from Feb 3 2023. 

[kaykay22222]

Man, you said mortgage rates will go up from 7%. Don't you see that we are at the end of the tightening cycle. You never cared about the lags.

[Torontojay]

How convenient Kay, you come out of hiding when the stock price jumped big time.  At least acknowledge just how wrong you were regarding mortgage rates. You can see for yourself that I called for mortgage rates to be between 7 and 8% right around this time of year.