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Western Wind Energy Corp V.WND



TSXV:WND - Post by User

Comment by agrossfarmon Oct 11, 2012 1:04pm
148 Views
Post# 20473699

RE: QUESTION..

RE: QUESTION..

The current price is a function of the probable final price of a deal, reduced for the degree of uncertainty for that deal or any deal happening (like not being voted down by unrealistic shareholders expecting over $8 per share or following the recomendation of a Board that presents the highest offer but suggests to vote against it because they say the company is worth more).

And that is all discounted for the time it will take for the deal to close.

The estimates for when that is have been very poor on this board, possibly because people are confusing the promise to make the deal public in January with the incorrect idea that it will CLOSE in January.

If WND sends out a deal information circular prior to a vote, that has to be done a month before a vote. If the deal is approved by the Board in January, they will need to prepare that Circular and file it on SEDAR. So a vote might take place in February, if we are lucky.

Then, assuming the deal is approved, applications will be made to regulators that oversee the wind and solar projects in their various jurisdictions. They will also have to file deal papers with the regulatory authorities in the US and Canada. The US Federal HSR review will take 30 days most likey. The State Utility commission reviews will probably take longer.

If WND or the acquiror spends the money to prepare filings before the vote is taken, Regulatory approval could come in April at the likely earliest, assuming that there are no strong intervenors at the State level.

The discounted price today reflects each Regulatory step and the possibility of delays, refiles or outright rejection or requirements that the acquiror divest some other property to get approved.

In other words, and in summary, IMO today's price is predicting that the ultimate price will be over $3.25. Time passing or visibility of what the offer will be in terms of cash, stock, timing, contingencies, financing plans, etc. will affect the discounted price of the deal.  In the meantime, there will be many people who get bored, or who are clueless about the process, who give up and just sell.

That is why shares are available at the current price. Hope this helps you understand and relax.

 

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