OTCPK:WSRLF - Post by User
Post by
nodrog777on Aug 11, 2012 10:42am
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Post# 20207258
Recovery factor
Recovery factor
Page 6 of the 2012 ATM presentation suggests approx shaikan reserves of approx 2250mbboe. I am pretty sure this graph is referring to the full field recovery rather than net to GKP, as the other recovery rates, e.g. Bada rash fit well with published recovery estimates.
It's interesting to note that bada rash has an estimated stooip of 14174mmbls. I.e. it is a very similar size to shaikan, although Afren are currently only using a recovery factor of 10%!
That being the case, taking the recent p50 of 13700mmbls, I get an estimated recovery factor of 16.4%. it looks like the earlier seeking alpha article posted by brellis is also using this recovery factor taken fromt this presentation
https://seekingalpha.com/article/739961-gulf-keystone-petroleum-what-is-the-14-billion-barrel-shaikan-field-worth
My question is where do we think this recovery estimate has come from and what is it based on. Is it really likely that a purchase of shaikan will use a recovery figure of double that figure (and treble the bada rash?).
If GKP think the recovery factor is significantly higher than 16% why would they publish it in the agm presentation in this way as it certainly led the seeking alpha valuation. Confused and hoping someone with better oil knowledge than me can put me right.
Thanks. |