muley1 .... Thank you for your mention!
A poster earlier tonight mentioned the return for the risk one is taking ... that are spot on at this stage of the game
At 1.06 ... its looking a little better ... I probably would add at under a dollar for sure ....
but let's break down the current situation-
1) 1 well producing 5000 b/o/d for export .... payment: 6/13? 12/13?
2) 100 million in the bank with monthly burn rate of 10 million, and well costs of 10-50 million per well, give or take
Obligations, cash calls on two blocks, one with working interest, one as operator
(Not exactly a flush cash situation when looked at in this perspective)
3) No gas and oil law since 2007, constitutional interpretation problems ....
sub-issue: Kurdish independence versus Iraq's unwillingness to part with the oil
Those that say there can be no civil war forget that we had one in the good ole US in 1860's
4) Stand-off of military forces between sovereign Iraq and semi-autonomous Kurds over Kirkurk, etc.
5) Question of ability of semi-autonomous Kurds to export oil to Turkey without soverign Iraq's ok
6) Sovereign Iraq's rejection of KRG contracts, although WZR's may be ok given its early signing ....
7) Sovereign Iraq recently turning a flight back with Turkish government official, heading to the annual Erbil shin-dig
8) K-2 still in development, possible export in 2013???
So if Citi is telling me that I can get a return of 20% from Imperial Oil ... as boring as that is and can be, but with Kearl coming on and dividend, etc ....but no govt. risk ,,,,,, maybe I have to splash some water on my face before I put say $20000 into WZR tomorrow and wake up from near-term dream of buying a Learjet with some Calgary tower-girls in tow, for the reality of something like today which tells me and others that we still have some ways to go, along with the list of items above
The share price is what it is.
Maybe true value, maybe oversold ... but it is the going market rate, and tax-loss season is coming
Do not get me wrong, I want everyone to make money here and WZR to succeed, but let's face it ... this is a tough way to make a buck, and has been since 2008 (although 2009-2010 was sweet)
400 million shares or so outstanding don't make it any easier,
Best,
ulysess