time for FA analysis for ZENHave read all the posts from individuals who have spent some time doing TA on our favorite stock zen. Thanks for the information and the time spent updating and educating posters like myself. I have always been focused more on fundamental analysis than the technical given I really don't understand TA all that well. Here is my point of view regarding the FA as it applies to zen going into next week. There are some key considerations that you must include on any analysis, FA or TA. Certainly, the buying we saw on Thursday and Friday that moved the stock significantly cannot be attributed to retail activity. You may have noticed that the bids were never huge but nevertheless, the big buyers were lurking in the weeds, hitting the ask at the opportune times. This to me are institutional or funds taking a major position in this stock and quietly accumulating now that they are more informed about the zen story. I don't think they're finished yet and I expect to see this continue into next week. Some other factors to consider through FA are as follows:
- fund and/or institutional buying are raising their stake in zen and expect to see institutional ownership around 25% soon. This is a major move up from 10% several weeks ago. This will come of course at the expense of retails selling their stock either anticipating the worst or cashing in on profits which is justifiable given the increase in zen value. Aubrey will not be doing a private placement anytime soon so there will be no raise to feed institutional appetite.
- there will be news... soon. I believe the order of releases will be the 10 drills still outstanding from the east pipe, a remote possibility of visuals on the west pipe, ongoing purity information from Lakefield, the very important metallurgical work by universities which will give us more information as to what sectors we can compete in, drill results from the west pipe and finally, raising the target price of zen from 4.50 to ????? by our american analysts. So all this to say, lots of news in the pipe to come before September and as a result, TA very unpredictable.
Aubrey stated several times that he is an exploration geologist and has no experience and interest in operationalizing and managing a mine. This points to a buy out that we all anticipate at some point in time. Not enough information IMO for a serious bid at this point in time given interested parties will await more information on tonnage, metallurgy and ultimately the 101. But any company interested in zen, and there are many, will be taking a stake in this company by accumulating shares and using this stash as a base for a potential take over offer. Its done all the time folks and no reason why it won't be done here. So maybe it wasn't institutions buying on Thursday and Friday, and a very interested party might have been accumulating shares. Either way its bullish for zen.
So my prediction based on FA and the givens outlined above point to continued strength in the share price and a significant moderation in any pull on the share price dictated by TA. At worst, as one poster indicated, the share price might go sideways until the technicals catch-up and justify us being at $4.00. Many people are trading the stock but given the environment that zen finds itself in right now, its a risky business. Every time I have tried, I ended up chasing the stock as it moved upwards significantly. I know I am a rooky at this but I don't want to be left out and miss a major move like we saw on Thursday and Friday. News or not next week, the different variables affecting zen will have us well over $4.00 by Friday nearing the $5.00 mark. Just my two cents worth anyways and remember... despite all variables, zen will come out on top... just a matter of time and filling in the gaps associated with its unique discovery.