RE: RE: RE: inverse head & shoulder patern Bruleoil,
I agree with you on you brief comment about volume and convergence. .77/s is indeed a fine position to take... just don't panic if it happens to drop a bit more for one reason or another. I'll tell you what I basically see in the year pattern now though, and why I still disagree with you on your inverse head and shoulder discourse...
-Sideways movement from the start of July '12 to mid November '12 with 1st upwards resistance at 1.93, 2nd upwards resistance at 1.95, and 3rd upwards resistance at 2.00 and with a bottom resistance at 1.54. The stock stayed above 20-day EMA two times on the year-to-date- between July 16th and Aug. 23rd and between October 18th and November 21st. In neither of those periods was the upward trend particularly strong (and the inside buying on the 21st of November didn't turn the trend around).
-Despite heavier volume, the stock continued to decline, with small spikes provided temporarily by volume and news/rumors, from the 21st of November, 2012 up to March 12th, 2013.
-Since the latest rebound peak of 1.23 on March 26th, I think due in large part to rebound off of the 1.00 resistance and the imminent quarterly (4th of 2012) due in March (which came out around the time of the rebound), where the stock failed to break its bearish channel trend, it continued to plummet to where it is now. Obviously, one must take into account the 1st quarter report of 2013 that came out just recently, the information on it (primarily the lack of a concrete update on waterflooding and the increase in expenditure for transport of water for those projects), and the fact that we are now in the break-up period of the year which is consistently the worst time of year for production.
-Since the beggining of March 2012 to present the equity value of Pinecrest has dropped more than that of 75% to the point that the market has nearly discounted Pinecrest's reserves altogether. In a macro viewpoint, Canadian junior oil (and Canadian oil in general) is out of favor largely due to legislation and media in the United States, lack of oil logistics and infastructure within Canada, and the market's unrealistic pricing of natural gas (in regards to its actual applications)... this is why the stock is truly floundering. i won't discuss quarterlies because we've all had time to digest them by now anyways...
-Going back to technicals then... the closest PRY has seen to an inverse head and shoulders in the past year was between June and the early days of July, respectively-- and that wasn't a true inverse head and shoulders because: a) the momentum was still bearish until mid-July... bringing us to point b) there was no definitive neckline then. If anything the subsequent trough made it appear as if a slight head and shoulder pattern was in formation but that never really came to fruitation either.
-Lastly, you can do whatever other research you'd like, i strongly encourage it... short positions, analyst ratings, price to cashflow, rsi; the more research the better--... looks Goooood with a capital G. I've been fairly interested in the MACD technical lately. It seems to be less volatile now which is good news because that might signify 'WOAH! There is no reason to sell this stock anymore!' It could indicate a bottom and at a P/E of 6 and prospect of a possible double-fold increase in production on the not-so-distant horizon, I'd be damned surprised if it kept going lower at this point. I will keep buying if it does. I believe in Wade Becker and gang and also think they've been smart about localizing their focus and weathering the sector downturn.
To close, as everyone already knows, a lot of this stock depends on decent waterflood results, in that sense it is still a bit speculative, but that's why you get behind good management. This continues to be a sector where there is very little positive press at the moment. Just a glimpse of positive press could change everything, as could a spurt of heavy non-individual buying, OR a positive project update from the company. Sure-- commodity prices could plummet for some unknown and a black swan could come along and bite your peter off but that's why you should always walk with a cane or a swift set of kickers right?
Be patient and stick strong with the long!
-RL