GREY:VFGGF - Post by User
Comment by
ofirmeon Jan 15, 2014 5:08am
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Post# 22092482
RE:RE:Canacorde price target just mentioned on BNN .30 !
RE:RE:Canacorde price target just mentioned on BNN .30 !I have to admit that your read of the management was right. the assets are worth a lot of money,
but it has to be managed by people with better skills. you do not hide when problems arise.
especially not when you are postponing by two months projects that were supposed to narrow or
close the gap between your forecasted numbers and your otherwise production numbers...
They sacrifised 260BOPD on these projects by converting them to injectors, but the injection
has not started for three month. that can be disclosed to all shareholders and not just to a
select few who have been selling as if they were printing money...
even worse, those three projects had their 17 offseting wells going down for two months
instead of advancing slightely by now. instead of being beyond pre injection total rates, we are
at least 300 bellow. that is a 300-400BOPD difference.
I know that I believe in hard numbers, so as long as the assets can generate a future cashflow to
cover the debt, we should be fine.
I wish someone could tell how much the savings from the other water source will be compared to
what I assumed (24 x $400,000 = $9.6M total cost of the projects).
I am reading that one offseting well is not producing and two others are producing more oil than
anticipated.
The only good news is that they confirm the waterflooding produces over 100% increase over
primary within 9 month and that is for a problematic well... at least I know what to expect...
loss of three otter projects: 350BOPD
loss of offseting well: 60BOPD
underperforming three wells: 100BOPD
Total explained differences could be 510. added to 2308 = 2818. still short of 3100 as the
target for Q4 exit.
At this point, either well understood explainations are required on an ongoing basis, or
someone will replace management by buying it or just a small activist investor doing its thing.
The value is there, but the management is a detrement to the asset value being rightfully
presented and explained - no spins, hiding, games. just plain words.
Good luck.