GREY:WFREF - Post by User
Post by
Boulteron Jun 20, 2016 12:17pm
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Post# 24980259
What a Gong show ... but do we really need to fear deal fail
What a Gong show ... but do we really need to fear deal failHi:
Surely there is no honest reason for Canada to need an extra 90 days to approve this deal. I mean really, this is just a little piddly junior O&G, not Suncor FFS. Maybe there is a dishonest one, that the bureacrats are stalling it long enough until oil prices rise and we don't need to settle for $0.52. "Why sorry, but oil prices have risen so far while we were dragging our feet here that this deal, while it would have been of net benefit to Canada 4 months ago, no longer is of net benefit in the new $50/barrel era and thus approval of the deal is denied."
Q1 realised price was $$36BOE.
Q1 produced 28000B/D
maybe average prices in Q2 of $46, up USD10 or Can$13/B
So 13*28000*90(days) = just under $33M.
Maybe Q2 FFO will be better by about $33M over Q1 and we are not nearly so close to bankruptcy. I am sure my estimate is quite crude (pun intended), but surely at least $20M better than Q1.
In 90 days of dicking around here, the SP is holding up pretty well at $0.46. Maybe the market does not fear the deal not closing while we are at $50 oil. What do more knowledgable people say?
Boulter