Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

Why Longruns days are numbered

[ppp]

When evaluating a company I like to use two numbers cost of reserves and price per flowing barrel.

Example Whitecap has a value 100,000 per flowing high share price
Longrun under 30,000 low share price.

Now Whitecap our some other company takes us out at 40,000 a flowing, this would 
let WCP double in size for 1.6 bil  Whitecap is worth 4 bil  

Total value 5.6  drops their price per flowing  to 70,000 

IMO we are being set up for this to happen.

I was their when Renagade was portrayed as the biggest  loser out there.
Share price was destroyed.  Funny thing happened Spartan took them over and all of a sudden SPE is the best thing out there, what changed most of Sparten is Renagade.

One hand washes the other in the patch and in the investment world.

So now lets look at how Sprott gets their money back from their loseing investment. Thats easy sell the company to some darling that BNN is hypeing
and watch that companys share price double because it made a smoken deal.

End of story.

[JohnJBond]

It is not unusual for bashers to appear on internet message boards, shortly before a takeover offer is announced. If there is a take over offer in play, management will be prohibited from buying or selling during the negotiation period. I've been watching the insider trading reports, and according to TD's version, the last public market transaction by an insider was on Sept 10, 2014 for

[99999gold]

with all due respect and I know you said you're speculating - you're delusional. Its' funny that you also threw "it might be successful".  see what's happening to nat gas? done as well. 

[JohnJBond]

Its worthwhile to note how fast my post was followed with a negative comment. In my view, the faster the negative response, and the more negative the comment, the greater the likelihood of something interesting going on behind the scenes. I also note that before announcing a takeover, the acquirer will purchase just under 10% of  shares in the open market (or about 20 million shares in this

[99999gold]

john - there's nothing going on behind the scenes that I can guarantee you - no management team can act quickly enough pick up a phone and say buy us out at 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 or whaever number you wish. Think about that for a second - who would entertain them? any company that entertains it will get beaten down. 

[peplare]

Anyhow the offers would come to them.

[madmax1970]

99999gold, how can you be so sure of what's going on behind the scenes?  How can you guarantee something whatsoever? give fundaments, something to support your crazy theories. other then that we can only speculate and fell good about it

[maurizion]

Looks to me like 99999gold is a computer with some level of artificial intelligence.

[99999gold]

my theories have come to fruition so far, so will my "theory" that a takeover is not in the works. Go ahead call the company, as if they'll tell you that they are however do you actually think mgmt have received any takeover offers shortly after the commodity collapse? Do you realize the effort it takes to take out a company - because I do, I've worked for resource companies for

[madmax1970]

99999gold wrote: my theories have come to fruition so far praise the lord we are in the presence of a resources priest...  Realy? 20+ years in the business doesn't make an expert... If you can tell me what will be the closing price tomorrow, I might consider listening to you...otherwise... If management does what you said, it will be only because they can't take e-mails from you

[99999gold]

today - 1.75 tomorow - 1.65 to close for 1.60 for the week.  plus/minus 4-5c here and there.  ok you win - there's a takeout on it - now what are you gonna do about your belief? 

[madmax1970]

thanks Dude, looks like it will be a cold winter... go here: https://www.meteomedia.com/about-us/careers/ they are hiring

[JohnJBond]

For someone with 20+  years working for resorce companies, one wonders why your current position seems to require you to monitor this bulliten board full time, and publish negative responses to any positive posts in an apparent attempt to discourage potential buyers, and enourage sellers!

[99999gold]

if you listened me to you would've made money or save money no?  you win. 

[peplare]

What kills me is where he shows the temperature at the end of his post.

[99999gold]

is that sarcasm? or you're just being a moron.

[madmax1970]

well said JohnBond.... I think 99999Gold is a basher! or an anal ist!

[Philip1966]

thet fellah, 20+ years in the industry and he doesn't even know when you short you have to cover the dividend payments. begs to ask, 20+ years in what industry... bullboard bashing?

[UppersDowners]

the bottom line is we are at 25% yield and no sign of us go anywhere but down. I tell ya something does not add up as who is selling this in the $1.60's when just a few months back we were in the $5.00's and undervalued. Are we missing something? There can not be much downside from here and if so might as well claim personal bankrupcy as I have lost mid 5 figures.

[UppersDowners]

plus we have only a $325 million market cap. Our debt is a big concern and managements attention is required to make the tough decision to cut the divi. I bet we would go higher as the divi has been priced in.

[JohnJBond]

I don't see why its a hard decision to cut the dividend.     Its a fairly obvious choice to me, in that it strengthens the company, and will allow them to maintain capex very siimlar to last year.    This will generate lots of cash (I think the concensus cash flow for 2015 if prices hold at present levels is about 320 million).    That kind of cash flow will be

[pennydredful]

They   never  should   have  had  a  dividend  .  They  make  no  profit .   Shareholders  have  lost  heavily   and   now  will  also  pay  tax  to   CRA   re   the  dividends  they  received   even 

[ppp]

They   never  should   have  had  a  dividend  .  They  make  no  profit .   Shareholders  have  lost  heavily   and   now  will  also  pay  tax  to   CRA   re   the  dividends  they  received   even 

[JohnJBond]

When was the last time you found a company trading at about 1X next years cash flow! That is a very unusual situation, and unlikely to exist for long.

[99999gold]

say what you want Phillip1966 - the fact is you're holding the bag that I'm about to collect on. 

[peplare]

October 1, 2014 – December 31, 2014 19,000 GJ/day CDN $3.50‐$4.02/GJ October 1, 2014 – March 31, 2015 13,000 GJ/day CDN $3.50‐$3.75/GJ October 1, 2014 – December 31, 2014 10,000 GJ/day CDN $3.50‐$3.90/GJ October 1, 2014 – December 31, 2015 5,000 GJ/day CDN $4.00‐$4.50/GJ October 1, 2014 – December 31, 2015 5,000 GJ/day CDN $4.00‐$4.51/GJ January 1, 2015 – December 31, 2015 20,000 GJ/day

[borne2run]

ppp, you are so right about Renegade. When I compared Renegade's share price prior to the takeover to the share price of Spartan shortly after the acquisition was completed, I estimated that the "implied" value of Renegade's assets had tripled.  Why were those assets suddenly worth much more?  Supposedly because some "smart oilman" had purchased them. I think

[ppp]

My time frame for this is within the next 6 months 9999gold you are correct so far with your predictions but this story has a long way to  go. We will see how this plays out.