Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

Seeking Alpha article

[tootall67]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/2753015-can-long-run-exploration-sustain-its-30-percent-dividend-yield?ifp=0

[Thanksforplaying]

Great article.  Good to remember lre is half oil half gas production.  I think they should eliminate the dividend.  Everyone still long is a big boy and not holding it for 3 cents a month.  

[qwqw]

He's using the Q3 derivative loss of $4.5 mil in all his calculations ??????????

[qwqw]

His calculations leave a lot to be desired. -Q3 G&A was $4.8 mil higher than normal due to Crocotta transaction costs. Yet he uses this overinflated G&A for all his calculations?????? "Long Run's corporate netback includes $1.50/Boe ($4.8 million) of general and administration expense related to the Crocotta transaction costs." -Q3 production was understated by 3000 boepd as

[UppersDowners]

qwqw......where do you see the share price going and out true net worth?

[qwqw]

I'm expecting a Whitecap or similar to make an offer in the near future around $3.50 Although $3.50  sounds too low,I'm expecting the offer to be mostly shares of the acquiring company which should get a nice bounce after the announcement.we should end up with over $4. I'm hoping Sprott, Spartan or other little stinkers don't get any bright ideas.

[Sumcan2]

October 2011 Sinopec bought Daylight Energy for $2.2 billion, they had 174 million boe proven and probable reserves at the end of 2010 which equates to $12.65 per boe. At the time Beveridge valued Daylight's reserves at $16.70 Long Run at the end of 2013 had 97,683,000 gross boe and 85,249,000 net boe Crocotta at the end of 2013 had 46,227,000 gross boe and 39,165,000 net boe I don't know

[qwqw]

You missed the Crew property purchase of 60 MMboe. Total gross reserves were 193MMboe on their last presentation. 

[Sumcan2]

Thanks qwqw, I forgot about that aquisiion, so the value of the company is even better. I imagine that management will make their 2015 guidance statement tommorrow night, they usually do about 7:30 EST

[johnathamilton]

In calculating the per share value did you subtract the $700MM debt? Also for those cash flow calculation for the seekingalpha article, what is the capital cost required to maintain production? Remember that fracked wells decline at least 50%/year and new capital has to be sunk in order to maintain production.

[Sumcan2]

In calculating the per share value did you subtract the $700MM debt? . I subtracted $718 million of debt.

[Sumcan2]

qwqw, you are correct, he has not factored in for a full quarter of production from the Crocatta purchase. Last quarter only had 1.8 months worth of production. I recalculated using 38437 boe/d and a $48 WTI and $3.65 for Nat Gas and using a $1.12 exchange rate and get $52.4 million Funds flow from Operations for the quarter which would put them close to being in non compliance of of the covenants

[Sumcan2]

65% of thr 4th quarter liquids are hedged and 40% for the 1st quarter of 2015. This will help to weather the price decines for a while and my calculations do not take this into consideration. They also have outages and projected fourth quarter downtime so I am not sure how much this will effect the production/day, but they are forcasting 31,400 boe/d down from 32,100 boe/d average for 2014 which

[Sumcan2]

His calculations are probably fairly accurate but he his definitely missing that after more than a 15% drop from $60 WTI they may not be in compliance with their credit facility covenents which are based on the trailing 12 months EBITDA if the drop persists for very long. It will all depend on how stuborn the Saudis are on keeping the price down to punish the non OPEC producers. They all need to