Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

LRE Bank debt covenants

[dowd]

They must keep their 12 month trailing ebitda at or below 3 times bank debt. Has anyone tried to calculate this? It is tricky because of lack of information and timing of aquisitions. I tried to guestimate  and they missed by a little but I could be wildly off. 

Anyways, I think they get a waiver if needed for the march31 period as they could always monetize their hedges just before march 31 to make it over the line. 

But no way do they make the Fall bank debt covenants imo. Anyone have an opinion on this issue?

[veronikagermany]

LRE's  debt concerns a lot of investors. Stay far from the indebted companies.

[Sumcan2]

I calculated a cash flow for a 12 month period using 32000 boe/d and 43% oil, 57% NG, oil hedges of 35% @ $85us, NG hedges of 35% @$3.6 AECO. For the unhedged portion, I used $2.50 AECO and $52.50us. I used a $1.23 exchange rate for the oil. Revenue comes out at $509,788,188 and expenses of $316,500,000, which include operating costs, interest, transportation, G/A, and Royalties. With the lower

[Shlinker_]

Wow, Sumcan2, excellent analysis I have to say. Its somewhat above me to calculate such metrics this way. Good post. I take it you are a shareholder?

[sapiensunus]

Any calculations we make can be only assumptions. WE need to see current data to make any further assumptions. Although I used a 3.75:1 and came up with something similar… interest costs are about 65million (based on 10%BD 3Q Budget of a 100 mil). What we see and what can be done with taxes and financial accounting are two different stories. The most important thing is having earnings per share.

[Sumcan2]

Based on the 3rd quarter financial statement, the 3rd quarter interest expence was $7,566,000 , just over $30 mil. I used interest in my calculations and EBITDA does not so the ratio without interest is 2.86 But as you rightfully stated we need to see current data.  

[sapiensunus]

When I do my DD on costs I like to include expenses for Contractual Obligations and Contingencies and Related Parties (see MD&A) to the net debt as there are interest related costs there as well. Good stuff. GWH

[tvstock2]

Ratio without interest is 2.86? If you are right that's good news as that is < 3 and they can comply . Quarterly EBITDA numbers for reference, not sure 100% correct If the EBITDA numbers for the past 4 quaters according to this website are 100% correct, there is lot of room to move. 44.37M 57.43M 77.57M 115.98M for the last 4 quarters. When trailing 12 months figures are to be used in

[Sumcan2]

Yes Shlinker I am long LRE. Long Run's combined proven and probable reserves are 143,910,000 gross boe and 124,414,000 boe net at the end of 2013 (Long Runs and Crocotta combined but not the Guide aquisition). What are the value of these reserves plus the value of the land. When they publish them for the end of 2014 what will they be, I would think they will be higher. Hopefully we will