Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

Sell all or some.......

[wilwal]

....either is a winner for existing shareholders.  

Selling Redwater at a good price will de-risk the company from credit default and push the share price closer to NAV.  Selling all would surely mean they would fetch more than NAV.  Either one will be a big boost to share price.

[Shlinker_]

and what is the estimated NAV now?

[wilwal]

As you would be aware, NAV is a moving target as O&G prices move, but LRE NAV would be in the ballpark of $1.30 - $1.50.

[ppp]

base case NAV is at just over 4 dollars at itrade they have a target of 1.75 I would think  Nav is around 3 a share and they would get taken out at 1.50 Everyone likes a deal.

[theman0]

Everyone likes a deal?? Who is everyone? Only deal I want to see is the sale of some non-core assets. There will be no takeover of LRE.

[OneStar]

Theman0 I agree with you. We likely have seen the bottom in oil. Natgas looks good in NA. Lre has more value then $1.50 I expect them to book an additional 30 mboe to the reserves, when the waterflood in peace river is in full swing. Either late this year or early next. If they could sell Redwater at a decent price that would work for me as well. Os

[ppp]

Tell it to the dummies that are selling.  

[rivermoney]

I agree PPP. Everyone should be buying at this point. News will be out and by the looks of things should be very positive.

[bullchart]

Some of you guys, really. There will never be a takeout and some comments like that. I am here to inform you every company is forsale at the right price. It may happen or it may not, it is just nice to have a number in mind in case it should happen. I have been in on two of these oils that I never thought would get bought out. But guess what, they did. Nobody want to talisman at $4-5 dollars there

[theman0]

I know it is not going to happen. What will happen is a reduction of the debt/cash flow ratio to roughly 2x. This reduction is what is being anticipated by the market, which is also allowing the fear of debt to be less of a concern.

[emmitt]

To get a reduction in the debt to cash flow, either debt gets reduced or cash flow increases. To get to 2x they almost have to sell assets as I can't see cash flow increasing greatly right now. 

[theman0]

Where you been emmitt? We have been discussing the fact that they have assets for sale which will reduce debt and thus the debt/cash flow ratio. LRE has also stated that they will spend $50 million of anticipated cash flow of $150 million, of which the $100 million will be used to pay down debt.

[emmitt]

I agree totally. I thought you were suggesting they weren't going to sell assets and I coudn't see them getting the debt/cash flow ratio down to 2x without a sale.   I took a little break from the bullboard. I like to have discussions and share ideas with the bulls and the bears. The board got a little crazy for a while with foolishness.  Purchased another 10k shares this week

[Reflect]

Printing a piece taken from Matt Smith’s article from 2/12/15 in The Motely Fool. LRE is stable & slightly increasing when so many stocks are falling. Investors are finally beginning to see the great value in LRE – it’s that simple. Who’s selling (short coverage, idiots settling for peanuts, those easily scared & fooled etc.) it

[VentureCapital3]

"...assuming an oil price of US$52.50... LRE has a value of $3.20 per share..." What are the other asumptions??? Proved and producing oil reserves were 15M on 31 December 2014. Total oil reserve were 40M. Most are not developped and if you consider the CAPEX will not have any value at US$52.50. LRE has also LNG and NG reserves (some developped and some not). 85M is more like a mix of oil

[Reflect]

Stick with Spartan Energy. A measly 9,600 BOD/d  with 264 million shares out. The Nutcase & John O'Connell got you in the palms of their hands. Didn't you hear what john O'Connell said; a whopping 200 million dollars for 9,600 BOE/d (98% oil). All I can say, John O'Connell missed his calling - he should have been a clown & had the nutcase for his sidekick. He pretty

[Reflect]

Venture Capital 3:  If Matt Smith’s numbers are fabricated & you can prove this with evidence from the SEDAR Filings by all means show us & then you can file a complaint with the SEC that LRE mgt. & their accountants have deliberately & with intent; deceived share holders by falsifying numbers. In other words; the onus is on you Venture Capital 3 because I don’t believe you

[VentureCapital3]

You're not helping LRE doing that. Matt Smith's numbers??? Witch numbers? My point is that he didn't provide all his assumptions and LRE management has nothing to do with Matt Smith's numbers anyway... Regarding SEDAR, my numbers were from LRE financial statements. I don't think Mr Smith tried to deceive you Reflect. I think he just doesn't know that there is a difference

[Reflect]

My point is that you Venture Capital3 are a basher and Matt Smith does know a lot more than you. Venture Capitlal3 you are just a "self-made" prima donna. Probably a Spartan Energy Loser. Mike Smith never decievied me - I have exposed you for the two-faced piece of excrement you are. Take your fishy mouth & go to a different board where it will be appreceiated. We investors of LRE

[VentureCapital3]

"We investors of LRE"??? I'm long in LRE and you don't represent me. I think you represent only yourself, and you don't do that very well.

[Reflect]

Reflect wrote: Printing a piece taken from Matt Smith’s article from 2/12/15 in The Motely Fool. LRE is stable & slightly increasing when so many stocks are falling. Investors are finally beginning to see the great value in LRE – it’s that simple. Who’s selling (short coverage, idiots settling for peanuts, those

[Shlinker_]

You post like a made-man Reflect. You're so selling shares its unreal.

[wilwal]

If Reflect is trying to convince people to get out of LRE, he couldn't do a better job.  He sure chases participants off this board. I'm in the green on this stock Reflux.  How about you?

[Reflect]

Wilwal & your little friend in your head Shlinker are nothing but Spartan Energy Brainwashed monkeys. You lie, twist, distort  to decieve small investors into believing LRE mgt. is doing a lousy job & to seduce people into selling at a loss. You want to steal the agenda. No person invests in a stock & then bashes it & critizes mgt. unless they are a shorter & want to ruin

[thefabergegg]

@Reflect - how many times do I have to tell you to take your meds? have you filled out that don't short my stock form yet? here it is again, pls forward it asap.  

[VentureCapital3]

His friend John was snooty, but he was providing accurate statements most of the time. Anyway, I really don't think people will buy or sell large amount of LRE's stock based on what is writen here... Regarding SCP, I have to say that I agree with Reflect comment but not regarding the SCP's analyst. It make sens to me to have LRE at $1.5 with WTI at $70.