Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

CIBC/Nov17th

[clement3]

sectorperformer

target  $0.55

still a  90%+  upside

[Shlinker_]

Thats great, thanks, but i need 350%

[clement3]

take J.Schachter`s  target  $1

[Reflect]

Clement3: You are taking J. Schactner's target out of context. Schactner's targets are based on oil & gas prices & does not take into consideration the 100 million share dilution if LRE follows through with the deal with MIE. The MIE deal will hurt Long Run Shareholders with share dilution & future market investment. CEO Andrew is a tired old man who has lost face &

[clement3]

what is your realistic take on it ? do you go more with CIBC today?

[Reflect]

I definitely believe Long Run can rebound to $1.00/share as J. Schactner predicts with rising oil & NG prices. I don’t believe this will happen with the MIE deal. That is 100 million shares dilution (over 30% of added shares) but the real kicker is – the Chinese have shown themselves to be sleezeballs & have no face. They are a stench in the investment world &

[ppp]

Here is my take. Why not sell and move your money to another company.  Here is how I see things. LRE has EV value of about 725 mil.675 mil debt. Had Cf of about 35.5 mil.on production of 31000 bbls Not that great for the production. Compare TBE EV value of 400 mil 300 mil debt. CF of 33 mil on production of 16000bbls.  Fact is Tbe is a better buy it has better netbacks less debt per bbl

[Reflect]

PeePee: Sell & take a loss. In liquidation, you would get far more. What you see is irrelevant. Why don't you ask the institutions such as TD etc. how they arrive at a book value of over $3.00 for LRE (that is if you even understand the meaning of book value). You better look long & hard at TBE. Still paying a dividend with a production of 16,000 Boe/d with 364 million shares out

[ppp]

Using BV in this environment is foolish. Why do you think they had such a large write down. LRE over paid for a lot of their production. BV will be changing big time for most companies. What is an asset worth that makes no money. CF is what keeps the lights on.

[ppp]

Go check out PLT.un and see how much BV they had when they hit the wall

[Reflect]

ppp: you're coming from way out of left field. It's survival mode & I'll take my chances with LRE with liquidation. BTE is going broke - they have nothing to leverage without affecting production drastically. LRE can sell assets & keep the creditors easily at bay & still have adequate production to survive - but not with CEO Andrew & the present LRE BoD. They have

[Reflect]

I meant TBE ( twin butte) and not Baytex.

[PeterWright]

I woudn't touch TBE. IT's going to struggle in 2016 if oil prices don't increase significantly.

[ppp]

Peter I agree, but you had better look at Longruns hedge book also.

[ppp]

For Q3 both had about 20 mil hedge gain. LRE got 4 mil from gas, these are the only hedges they have for 2016 that are different from TBE. Both have about a 1000 bbls oil hedged in 16. 

[PeterWright]

To clarify PPP, I didn't mean to just pick on TBE. I have own TBE in the past and currently own LRE. Neither one are a screaming buy right now. 

[ppp]

Point taken EOM