GREY:WSCEE - Post by User
Comment by
cerebuson Jan 05, 2006 11:18am
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Post# 10116711
RE: SUF flying high!
RE: SUF flying high!Call me skeptical but I find it really hard to believe that SUF will have those plants up and running in 6 months. Here is why I think SUF is extremely overvalued. Facts based on Sep-05 financials and other information:
1. Cash - $6.2M; Total assets - $7.2M; Equity (deficit) - $ (3.0)M
2. Revenue - $ nil; Loss - $ (6.5)M
3. Market cap - $730M = all intangible - no tangible equity
4. Pilot plant - Korea - only 2,000 bbl per day, 7 months to build, raised 30+ API only 5 points
5. Pilot plant - Sparks, Nevada - only 5,000 bbl per day
6. Collaboration agreement with Chevron expired. My read is that test results were not good enough for Chevron to pursue further. This is significant since Chevron is one of the largest upgraders of heavy oil in the world.
Although the lastest new releases are very positive I think that the leap from where they are today to having these larger plants designed and built within a year is a stretch. I wonder what engineering is involved to get to these levels. I also wonder what the capital cost is and where the financing dollars are going to come from.
Personally I would not consider investing in SUF as the downside is huge especially at the current price.