Global Media Economy Set to Accelerate in 2014
Global Media Owner Advertising Revenues Predicted to Grow by 6.5% to $521 Billion Next Year
Mobile, Social and Programmatic Gained Momentum in 2013
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- Globally, media owner advertising revenues grew by +3.2% in 2013 to $489.6 billion. This is in line with our previous forecast (+3.0% in June 2013).
- As the world economy gradually improves in 2014, so will advertising spending. We now expect global advertising revenues to grow by +6.5% (previously: +6.1%) to reach $521.6bn, which will be the strongest year-on-year growth since 2010 (+8.4%, following the 2009 recession).
- The non-recurring sports events of 2014 (Sochi Winter Olympics, Brazil Soccer World Cup) and the US mid-term elections will contribute to the global growth of television (+7.5%). That compares a with a modest 1.8% growth in 2013 for TV globally.
- In the US, media owner advertising revenues grew by 1.3% in 2013 and will grow by +5.5% in 2014, a modest performance in a year boosted by mid-term elections and the Winter Olympics. We slightly reduced our 2014 forecast (from 5.9% in June) due to the slower than expected economic recovery (real GDP up 2.6% instead of 2.8% expected in June). Without the impact of political and Olympic advertising (P&O) the normalized growth rate would be 3.4% in both years.
- Western Europe will finally return to growth (+2.1%) after years of stagnation.Eastern Europe and Asia-Pacific will show high-single-digit growth. Latin Americaadvertising will grow by +12.7% as inflation and soccer should offset mild economic environment.
- Digital media was the fastest growing media category in 2013, increasing 16% to $118bn and reaching a 24% market share globally. Within digital media, social networks generated more than $9bn of spend in 2013, growing by +58%. Social media was also one of the catalysts (the other one being Search) for a jump inmobile advertising revenues, which almost doubled in size (+85%) to reach $16bn (14% of global internet advertising).
- Another turning point for digital media in 2013 was the take-off of programmatic trading. Including real-time bidding and other automated platforms for video and display inventory buying, programmatic spend reached $12bn globally this year globally. $7.4bn of that spend will be in the US, of which $3.9bn will occur via real-time bidding (+60% compared to 2012).