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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Ainsworth Lumber Co Ltd ANSBF

Forest Products Lumber & Wood Production

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Bullboard (GREY:ANSBF)

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Post by pappy7on Mar 18, 2013 6:48pm

So where would the share price be approx

If we are making 500k a day in Ebit, where would this place the share price in 6 months, 1 year, 2 years etc. Any educated guesses? With a multiple of 10-15 p/e this should be doable.

274

Comment by mr1derfulon Mar 18, 2013 1:59pm

RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: MR 1derful

During Q42012, ANS had revenue of $117.9 million and adjusted EBITDA of $42.3 million. The benchmark NC price for 7/16 OSB was US$332. The company will easily earn $500,000 of EBITDA per day. If we ...more

271

Discussion

Comment by mapmakeron Mar 18, 2013 1:04pm

RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: MR 1derful

dosperros is pretty close. Last year ANS was making EBITDA of $290,000/day at an average of $271 OSB price. Compare that with ANS making EBITDA of $1,100,000/day in 2004 at an average of $369 OSB ...more

218

Discussion

Comment by dosperroson Mar 18, 2013 6:16am

RE: dosperros..........

Two suggestions: 1) Since you clearly have zero understanding of the business and have never cracked an annual report, I'd suggest not playing the game. Shucks, I wonder how ...more

222

Discussion

Comment by louelon Mar 17, 2013 11:41pm

RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: MR 1derful

It was the suggestion that lumber had a great advantage going forward. They are actually quite equal. Lumber does the basic framing but the rest of the building process or closing in so to speak ...more

274

Discussion

Comment by specboy2011on Mar 17, 2013 10:54pm

RE: RE: dosperros..........

C'mon guys this is great board great stock and I am learning a ton on my investments.Afterall owning ANS and WEF but no wheres an expert on the business.Just think sector timing is perfect.My ...more

200

Discussion

Post by rampage1on Mar 17, 2013 10:49pm

dosperros..........

i was thinking your were a nutcase before your last post but now i know your a nutcase.a modern sawmill is NOT labour intensive.each log is analysed by lasers which feed info back to computers. it ...more

226

Comment by dosperroson Mar 17, 2013 10:04pm

RE: dosperros..........

You're probably not going to find any with more first-hand knowledge in more places in this sector than myself. Louel has more time in and is a sharp guy. But, I may have had more ...more

213

Discussion

Comment by dosperroson Mar 17, 2013 9:51pm

RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: MR 1derful

I'm not sure -- It was a back-of-the-napkin calc based on an EBITDA of $45M. Q1 should be easy to estimate as volume will be the same and prices have not changed much. We're ...more

198

Discussion

Comment by mr1derfulon Mar 17, 2013 9:50pm

RE: RE: RE: RE: MR 1derful

louel. I'm not sure we are talking about the same thing. I wrote about idled OSB mills eventually coming back into production and you wrote about timber quotas from idled lumber saw mills. How ...more

171

Discussion

Post by rampage1on Mar 17, 2013 9:32pm

dosperros..........

ok, show me your source for ALL the numbers you mentioned earlier, including how many men it takes to man a sawmill vs osb mill !

177

Comment by estebancaballoon Mar 17, 2013 9:18pm

RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: MR 1derful

Are you sure about the $500K per day EBITDA, D? If so that would bring their next quarterly earnings to a level exceeding most analysts' expectations, would it not?

127

Discussion

Comment by dosperroson Mar 17, 2013 8:22pm

RE: louel............

Dude: Best. Response. Ever. I take it you're short on OSB given this seemingly limitless timber supply?

124

Discussion

Comment by dosperroson Mar 17, 2013 8:14pm

RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: MR 1derful

Consier margins for the lumebr vs. OSB comparision. Most lumber mills have higher input costs (better logs) and more men in the facility, so higher production costs. So, ballpark $300 mfbm ...more

166

Discussion

Post by rampage1on Mar 17, 2013 7:18pm

louel............

your still are not grasping the situation. REGARDLESS of supply(trees available) their is about 150 less mills available in north america to convert the trees to lumber. now OSB still has a lot of ...more

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