It's been some timesince I last contributed to this forum - been simply too busy with other matters, but I always read the posts. Still long and strong on ETG, although I must admit that my T.HBM is now my top holding, simply because unlike ETG, it's heading in the right direction and it requires no maintenance or thought. ETG is still a strong second.
I was thinking the other day about ETG -"This should have been THE deal, getting in early, convinced that the Hugo trends onto our land, hitting one of the greatest mining holes in history on our JV lands, a bull market in resources, and yet all we have to show here is a meagre $1.70 share price"
What has gone wrong, and what's next? Unlike many of the conspiracy theorists on this thread, I'm not convinced that the comapny is holding back results. No news simply implies that nothing material has occurred since the last updates. I have stated in the past that I am not here becuase of the 100% lands, and that they are a long shot at best - I'm here since I strongly believe that IVN's massive deposit continues onto our land... It now "appears" that the deposit only extends 650 meters onto the Copper Flats, and then peters out..
I would have moved on and jammed the bid had I not felt that there is simply much too much liquidity being offered shareholders at these levels. Let's face it, in light of the delays in the stability agreement and the lacklustre recent drill results, why has our stock not drifted back to the $1.00 level. I have been around the markets many times before, and I feel too strongly that our chain is being pulled here, that the tree shaking is too obvious. Back the stock off when there is no volume, and go bobling every time any meaningful amount of paper is available. It reminds me of the trading behaviour last spring before the RTZ deal was announced - the stock traded just under $1.00, but there was incredible liquidity offered shareholders. There were obviously people in the know...
Perhaps it's now time to judge the original JV with IVN.. You can only judge when you look back at history. Crowe maintains that ETG would never have been capable of hitting down deep, and only with the experience of IVN's geological team and with their deep pockets, could the Hugo extensions have been uncovered on Copper flats. But in the end, it was RF who got his way - it's IVN that owns 80% of the riches on Copper flats. Even if RF was snookered on the surprising RTZ buy in, what does he care - he has 80% tied up, plus a postion in ETG that he picked up much cheaper than Rio. RF knew all along that the deposit continued northward, and he played Crowe like a fiddle. Where he really frustrated GC was his ability to keep interested parties at bay via his prohibitive non-compete clauses he made all interested suitors sign whilst entering the IVN data room back in late 2003. This is obvious judging by Rio's quick equity participation in ETG as soon as the restrictive clauses expired. What I am saying here is that if GC had resisted giving the farm away to IVN, we would now be partnered with a senior, (With an equally impressive geological team) and not have given up 80% of the deposit. You can bet that RF would also have tried antying up considerably more since he absolutely had to maintain control of the entire deposit. Anyhow, it's all hindsight, and everyone is an expert when it comes to it.
What's next for ETG? My guess is that unless there is some dramatic new drill results, we are shackled along with IVN until there is a stability agreement - which should be sooner rather than later. I suppose that ETG will then sell it's share of Copper flats and move on. The problem that I have is that I see little other value in the company other than a big treasury, and a large but uninspiring land position. Judging by the recent trading activity, one of above events is probably about to unfold.
In summary, it's been a long and somewhat frustratihng ride for most of us long time ETG holders. Sure we have made some money, but a 70% return in junior mining circles over a 2 year period is lacklustre at best. (I made my best cake off this deal when I bought in early in '03 and blew out all my paper in the fall at over $2.00 for a 5-banger - too bad I did'nt back the truck up) Everything we can dream about wrt to this deal has happened, except for some serious share appreciation. Even if the mother of all primordial vents is discovered on the Copper flats side of the border, it won't be discovered for many years since more drilling probably won't be done until they are minijng down deep and they can drill from there - poking down 2000 meters is simply not feasable nor is it economical.
Happy holidays to all fellow ETG'ers, and may our patience be rewarded sometime soon!
JANDD