TSXV:ABG.H - Post by User
Post by
geomeanon Dec 23, 2005 12:53pm
631 Views
Post# 10067323
Lots of discussion of Arawak
Lots of discussion of ArawakThere are quite long strings re Arawak on the TMY Yahoo Board and the Ragingbull BSKO board, most by folks with deep experience in Kaz oil investing... Here's a sample:
"Re: ARAWAK - Geo and Chemi
by: phorensicguy
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy 12/23/05 10:43 am
Msg: 3931 of 3940
the $1.60 NAV would represent a fair market appraisal based upon year end 2004 numbers. However, I don't feel that the 2004 NAV takes into account the significant successful capex on the Akzhar and Sotchemyu-Taliyu fields which has taken place this year. My estimates, based upon the development and appraisal drilling ytd, indicate that an additional 15 million barrels of reserves need to be shifted from the probable categories to the proven categories.
Going forward, the 2006 capex budget on Akzhar includes a much greater percentage of total spending on drilling, as the buildout of infrastructure to handle the rampup in production will be largely complete. I'm seeing an additional 18 million of proven reserves being added to the total in 2006 after deducting production.
Overall, I'm seeing year end 2006 with total proven reserves in excess of 69 million barrels in Russia and Kazakhstan, up sharply from the current number.
Also, the fiscal returns on Akzhar are tremendous. Arawak has generated EBITDA returns in excess of 56% YTD on revenues from this field, and has only now started to turn up the taps on the production.Based upon next years capex and all else being, I'm seeing an exact double from here by the end of 06."
https://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=3750345173&tid=tmy&sid=3750345173&mid=3931
Phorensic guy knows his onions on ABG, IMHO.