GREY:NATUF - Post by User
Post by
upmarketson Feb 09, 2006 10:43pm
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Post# 10341195
journalist in error. & an earnings calc
journalist in error. & an earnings calcLooks like the news writer likely doesn't know
the difference between 10 inches and 10 cm.
( flunk math - become a journalist )
She quotes price per tonne
when she means per metric tonne unit ( MTU )
an MTU is 1 % of a metric tonne
or 1/100 of 1000kg = 10 kg = 1 MTU ( = 22 lbs )
note MTU is useful since WO3 grade is around 1 %
If WO3 price is 70% of APT = .7 x $US265 = $185
Lets try $180 ( was it not lower with a contract? )
then sales could be:
30,000 MTU / mo x 12 x $180 US x 1.136 = $Can 73,600,000 yr
This can vary with grade & daily tonnage
Now costs in 2003 were $can62.40 or $us42.52 per MTU in Jan 05 circular
say Costs up today at $can85 or $us75 per mtu
so earnings may be = 105/180 x 73.6 mil rev = $can42.9 mil
or say 43 cents / sh on 99 mil sh , if price holds
So say just 34 cents x modest 9 p/e = $ 3.06 stock
Plus any value expansion from drilling nearby or at MacTung
- a 1.00 ?
A true cash flow calculation would be better for estimating value.
Anyway we should enter the 2.00's this season
Regards
U