RE: Open questionI wasn't trading (unless you count hockey cards) during the last bull market but I'd expect to see much of the following:
1. Watch for significant up moves in gold price, it seems that at this stage the bullion price will moved quicker than it is fully priced in to the producers and explorers.
2. ANY material inflation concerns coming out of the US will very quickly cause big money to flood into gold; I believe gold IS still a currency (silver is to a lesser degree) and other PM's will rise with the tide.
3. We're still early in the bull, MM's are still pretty skeptical of the power of the PM market for 3 key reasons imo:
- We're just moving into Phase 2 of the bull run, the PM company execs are only just now over THEIR skepticism but the broader markets will take more time to believe
- Most MM's were not around during the last bull either; MM'ing is a young man's game, they have little understanding of a PM bull, they DO know it's not for the faint of heart however,
- Wall Street has a HUGE vested interest in keeping the bull caged, they are paid to get their 6.01% returns in S&P companies. It's low risk and widows and orphans sleep better at night.
These MM's will largely go down with the ship before selling their Pfizer and GE.
*** BUT if they do they'll realize all hope is lost and they will have to pile into PM's; Wall (and Bay) streets will look like Pamplona, complete with trampled bodies all over the place.
4. Watch for "Page 1" stories (record PM prices, US inflation fears, US housing market bursting, US consumer confidence numbers dropping, etc.) consistently plastered over every newspaper, magazine and newscast. And I don't mean Page 1 of the business section. By this time the retail investors will be calling their brokers wondering if they are getting any of this action and the MM's will also be at their tipping point.
5. Big funds buy big blocks, usually by establishing positions and then buying more and more big blocks. Stockwatch.com is not a bad site to see the most recent trades but doesn't post depth. Does anyone have a better site for watching buyers and sellers?
To clarify, I wouldn't watch hedge funds as a signal the masses are descending, they will exit even faster than they enter.
6. This one's a little out there but it just came to me. In Canada Oil & Gas companies are taking advantage of a tax loophole and converting to income trusts, they will most often spin out an ExploreCo. Because they pay distributions to shareholders they are taxed at a dramaticall lower rate. This has really become big during the last few years of the oil & gas boom. I realise the timing of mining is waaaay longer than the O&G business cycle but if we ever start seeing this, wow.
7. Watch for the materials sector to become an increased fraction of the S&P. It's absolutely miniscule right now (I'd guess around 0.5%), in the 80's it grew to like 20% or something silly.
A bit long winded but these are some clues I'll be watching for. IMO we are at least a couple of years away from most of this, we are not even a blip on the radar yet.
Get your rest, we've got a long run ahead of us.
Good luck to all.