RE: SlowHere is what I posted earlier. I still think there's some logic underlying the valuation method, but whether or not that logic is appropriate, I can't say. I'm still very long on NAG and have not sold a share for a long long time (since last summer, when I sold a percent or two of my position, which have since re-purchased in multiples).
BTW, what's a CAT?
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Dividing $4.5B by 42M shares is far too crude an estimate, so here, for all of alls benefit, a slightly more refined, yet still flawed calculation:
Inferred Resources $4,500,000,000.00
Find Value After Costs (assume 75% cost) $1,125,000,000.00
Probability of Inferred Being Actual 50%
E(Find) $562,500,000.00
Annual cashflow if mined over 20 years $28,125,000.00
Present Value at discount rate of 20% $136,956,930.00
Shares Outstanding 42,099,161
Per Share Value $3.25
Note, the three big assumptions underlying this model are:
1. the assumption that the after-cost value of what is recovered is only 25% of the inferred value;
2. that the actual resources recovered, in total, amount to only 50% of what the inferred resources are stated as (if you want to assume 90% of inferred are actual, then you end up with a per share value of $5.86); and
3. that the financial flows from the mine result in equal cashflows over the course of 20 years.
Again, comments, etc. welcome.