GREY:RGVNF - Post by User
Post by
Monedas1on Jul 10, 2006 6:06pm
147 Views
Post# 11084937
Deal Fundamentals Better. .What's the Problem
Deal Fundamentals Better. .What's the ProblemThe technical data on our interest in the oil and gas properties has gotten “better and better”. Regent has NOW a 23% interest in the revenues from both concessions and could choose to have a 26% interest. This is huge!! Based on earlier calculations by posters more knowledgeable than I, the value of Regent’s share is easily $15-$18 per share once a few holes are drilled and more that $3.00 a share in situ with no drilling. McCallan/Regent currently have financing and/or a percentage of the revenues reserved for financing (28%) and so no more Regent shares need to be issued. The maximum number of shares seems to me to be 120 million once the shares for the added 22.5% interest are distributed. The extra percentage does not increase the number of share but rather provides for an early distribution of shares. The agreements with McCallan are signed and sealed and blessed by the exchange. Seems to me that only two uncertainties exist:
1.FUNDING: Will AAA provide $100M in funding or as much as needed or did the delay indicate some reluctance rather than an issue with the German government and paperwork. Does some problem exist with the financing from AAA of which we have no knowledge? We will have a partial answer to this question on July 31st. However, if the properties are as good as the previous studies indicate and the Polish government and the past involvement of major oil companies seems to verify this fact as being true, then doing joint ventures on a hole by hole basis does not seem to me to be a problem even if the AAA funding suddenly becomes problematic. If the properties are good, the money will come. Seems to me that the interest in joint ventures is being proposed as a means to give away less of an interest to AAA rather than being a default option
2.MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL: If Regents ends up owning 26%, are they the operators of the concession, because at that point, McCallan will have NO remaining interest? This situation might cause investors some concern because of Haywood’s involvement, Regent management’s lack of experience with large operations, and the negative comments I find on the bullboard concerning Rick Wilson’s alleged insider trading behavior. However, this perceived trust in management crisis could be easily remedied by adding experienced individuals to the Regent’s Board of Directors. Hopefully, this step will be taken at the Annual Meeting. I would like to see the German investors represented and somebody in addition to Ed Muller to watch out for shareholder interests. Curtis said that he could be drafted. The potential management issue I do not believe is driving the current selling because this is a longer-term issue and should not yet be impacting the current price of what should be a “hot” property.
So what is the problem in my view? I think that several market makers are simply using the low volume, summer doldrums and uncertain over funding to walk the stock down so that a few more cheaper shares may be bought before the uncertainties are resolved and/or a few individuals need money now and are selling at whatever price can be gotten.
The market makers are NOT selling a significant number of shares and in fact NOBODY is selling a significant number of shares. Remember, the market makers have more than 15 million shares and what is our volume? Nobody makes any “real” money until the volume goes way up and that will drive price. Six million or more of the current warrants are at $ .20.
I think that our current share price is about manipulation and not fundamentals but that is just my opinion. I would not sell one share of mine at these prices and I am a long-term holder of Regent Ventures. Good luck to us all in the next 30-60 days.