RE: PAUL VAN EEDENPaul van Eeden is an arrogant, conceited little mind with a somewhat-above-average knowledge of the gold and precious metals markets, but, in intellect, he doesn't hold a candle to the likes of John Embry and Eric Sprott, and certainly should NOT be in the business of managing OPM (Other People's Money).
I am amazed that this chomp managed to scare uranium investors by publishing an "analysis" [notice the quotation marks heaping some richly-deserved scorn on this nitwit] of tails assay arguing for a reduced demand in uranium due to increased use of enrichment. He was promptly debunked by Thomas L. Neff (an MIT physicist who holds his PhD in physics from Stanford and is the architect behind the Megatons-to-Megawatts HEU agreement) in this article:
https://www.uxc.com/cover-stories/uxw_19-41-cover.html
Van Eeden also got his arse deservedly kicked by Jim Dines (The Dines Letter) and Doug Casey (International Speculator & Casey Energy Speculator) on the topic of tails assay, which taught him a lesson (I hope) in discussing subjects beyond his level of mental ability.
Dr. Neff produced a richly instructive report of the 60-year history of uranium prices in the following document. Try this:
1) Go to https://www.hornbybay.com/WNA-2004-09-Neff.pdf
2) Scroll down to figure 12 on page 18. On this graph, Dr. Neff merged the actual historical prices for uranium from January 2001 to September 2004 with the inflation-adjusted uranium prices from the 1970's price spike. Note that subsequent price action in the nearly two years since September 2004 is amazingly similar to what this chart predicted.
I fully expect uranium to reach and exceed its previous inflation-adjusted high of 110$/lb, probably by late 2007. Only one half of the uranium used for power generation comes from primary mine production, the rest being made up by inventories. If this is not a uranium shortage, then what the heck is?
The previous spike in uranium prices was reached when production exceeded fuel requirements; the exact reverse situation prevails today.
Also note that Hubbert's Peak was reached in December, 2005, and that uranium will be needed to replace all that oil: one pound of U3O8 contains as much energy as 17 barrels of oil.
cheers,
yellowcake