Gold Fundamentals and Technicals Are Weakening Accoring to the latest data from the producer-funded
World Gold Council (WGC) total end-user demand fell in the second quarter by 16% to 801.6 metric tonnes from 959.8 tonnes a year earlier. That was the third straight quarterly decline, and the lowest level of demand since the third quarter of 2004. Jewellery demand, which accounts for 70% of the total end-user demand, showed also it's third straight quarterly decline and fell even by 24% to 562.5 tonne, a three-year low. Gold consumers from India, which account roughly for 30% of the total jewellery demand, reduced their purchases in the second quarter by 43% after a reduction of 38% in the first quarter. Investment demand rose only by 19% in the second quarter and only by 3% in the first half of the year 2006. Nevertheless, spending on Gold hit record levels due to the strong price increase of Gold in the first half year. The spending on Gold increased in the second quarter by 23% to 16.1 billion dollars and by 16% in first half of 2006.
On the supply side, the total supply increased in the second quarter by 2% to 989 metric tonnes after falling by 9% year over year in the first quarter. However, hedging activity of producers has dramatically increased in the last two quarters. It more than doubled to 157 metric tonnes in the second quarter after a sixfold increase in the first quarter.
As of September 1, the 15 central banks within the European Gold Agreement (EGA) have
reportedly sold roughly 340 tonnes. In order to hit the maximum amount of gold permitted by the agreement, the banks would have to sell about 160 tonnes in just under a month to hit the yearly quota of 500 tonnes by the September 26 deadline. The European Central Bank's (ECB)
weekly financial statements have been showing weekly sales of less than 5 tonnes for the past month or so. As Jon Nones
highlights, there are currently a lot of rumours surrounding the central bankes sales activities in the market, but nothing is concrete. Tuesday September 12th is the next day for publication of the ECB weekly financial statement.From the technical perspective, Gold is currently trading in a
descending triangle, which is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. An indeed, as the chart below reveals, Gold is currently in a downtrend. As such a pattern develops, volume usually contracts. And this is currently happening in Gold, both the volume in the futures market an the volume of the biggest EFT, which tracks Gold (AMEX: GLD), has considerably declined in the last six weeks.
Additionally to the bearish action in the price of Gold, the Amex Gold BUGS Index (AMEX: HUI), which is a modified equal dollar weighted index of companies involved in gold mining that do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years, tried to break out of an
ascending triangle, which normally is a bullish formation, but sharply reversed it's course and fell back to the lower trendline. To speak in technical terms, the break out attempt last week seems to be a
bull trap.
Given the weakening demand for Gold and the recent bearish action in Gold and the HUI, if Gold breaks below it's key support zone between $600-$607 per ounce and the HUI breaks below it's trendline, both Gold and gold mining stocks should head lower.
Disclosure: The author is short in Gold.For a detailed chart analysis with an estimated price target of Gold, look at my
Weekly Chart Book.