ParadigmHe's upbeat about it at least.
Don Blyth, Analyst, (416) 360-3461 1
Don Maclean, Sr. Analyst, (416) 360-3459
September 20, 2006
SULLIDEN EXPLORATION INC.
(SUE-T $0.89)
Shahuindo Claims Registered in Sulliden’s Name
Sulliden Should be Active on Project by Year End
• After a long battle over the ownership of the Shahuindo
property, the claims are now all registered in Sulliden’s name,
which means it is the only company recognized to have the
right to explore the ground.
• It will take a couple of months to get all the paperwork
(permits) necessary, but the company expects to be actively
drilling on the property by year-end.
• We believe these events significantly lower the risk profile of
Sulliden, and we are raising our rating to a Speculative Buy
(was Hold) and our target price to $1.35 (was $0.80).
Shahuindo Claims Now Fully Registered in Sulliden’s Name
Sulliden recently reported (Sep 13th) that its wholly-owned Peruvian subsidiary,
Minera Sulliden Shahuindo S.A.C. (“Sulliden Peru”) has obtained from the
SUNARP (the official Peruvian state registry) office in Trujillo, the notification of
registration for 20 of the 26 mining concessions of the Shahuindo gold-silver
Property. The six other mining concessions are already registered at the
SUNARP’s Lima office.
The registration was effected following the Decision of the Arbitration Tribunal
dated July 19, 2006 in Sulliden’s favour confirming the validity of the Transfer
Contract for the Shahuindo Property and ordering the transfer of the mining
concessions into Sulliden’s name, and the subsequent Court injunction obtained by
Sulliden from the Civil Court of Lima on August 1, 2006 ordering the parties to
comply with the Decision rendered by the Arbitration Tribunal.
Therefore, Sulliden (Peru) is the sole and only official owner of the Shahuindo
property and according to Peruvian laws is the only entity that can ask and obtain
required permitting from the authorities in order to perform any mining related
activities on that property.
Is the legal battle really, really, really over?
Having watched this battle drag out over the last 2-3 years, with more plot twists
and turns than your average soap opera, we have to ask ourselves: is this “really”
the end? The decision of the Arbitration Tribunal is final and unappealable. There
is only one tactic that the counterparty might try, and that is to get the whole
process of arbitration declared invalid. And Sulliden’s legal team have advised
them that such action is very seldom (<1%) successful. That’s a small risk we are
willing to take, on top of the usual risks of an advanced exploration story (e.g.
proving project economics, permitting & construction, etc.)
Stock Rating:
Buy (Speculative)
12-month target $1.35
Potential ROR 52%
Company Profile
Sector Gold
Ticker SUE - T
Shares O/S, basic (m) 70.8
Shares O/S, diluted (m) 72.0
Mkt cap, basic (C$m) $63.0
Mkt cap, FD (C$m) $64.1
Key Metrics
Cash/sh (C$) $0.12
Working Cap/sh (C$) $0.11
Debt/sh (C$) $0.00
Per share amounts are per (itm) diluted share
Analyst
Don Blyth
(416) 360-3461
dblyth@paradigmcapinc.com
Sr. Analyst
Don MacLean
(416) 360-3459
dmaclean@paradigmcapinc.com
Sales
Toronto (866) 361-1064
Calgary (877) 513-1025
Paradigm Capital research is available on First Call,
Reuters, or at https://www.paradigmcap.com
Refer to last page for official disclaimer
Issued by Paradigm Capital Inc.
Sulliden 1-Year stock price chart
0.40
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0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
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C$
09/20/06 Rec. and target raised ($1.35)
03/04/06 Initiated coverage ($3.50)
Source: Bloomberg
Don Blyth, Analyst, (416) 360-3461 2
Don Maclean, Sr. Analyst, (416) 360-3459
September 20, 2006
Next Steps
Despite the fact that Sulliden never left the property, it must file with the Ministry of
Mines for a new exploration program, and obtain permits for drilling. It must also
secure surface rights if it is planning on drilling in areas which it does not already
own the rights. Sulliden expects to file the documents in the next couple of weeks,
after which permits are usually issued within 60 days. Based on this timeframe,
Sulliden believes it should be back on the property with a new drilling campaign by
year-end. The company has recently completed a financing, so has roughly $7m in
working capital, which will allow this program to begin as soon as the permits and
equipment can be secured.
Upgrade to Speculative Buy
This property already has a 43-101 compliant resource of 1.5 Moz of gold at an
average grade of 0.85 g/t Au and 35.2 Moz of silver at an average grade of
19.83 g/t Ag, for a total gold equivalent of 2.1 Moz.
We would normally consider US$50/oz a conservative valuation for 43-101
compliant resources-in-the-ground. To be a bit more conservative, we’ll deduct
25% from this to allow for the chance that the counterparty to the legal action
dreaming up some challenge we (nor Sulliden’s legal team) haven’t considered.
That would suggest a value of US$78.8m or ~C$1.23/sh. To this we add the
current working capital of C$0.11/sh, to arrive at a valuation of C$1.34/sh.
While there are certainly still risks related to the Shahuindo property, we are
pleased to see the risk related to the ownership reduce to close-to-zero (say
1-in-100 that the legal counterparty will regain them). Now the company can get
back to worrying about proving up the economics of the resources, converting them
into reserves, and figuring out how to develop the property. We are raising our
rating to Speculative Buy (was Hold) and our target price to $1.35 (was $0.80).
Don Blyth, Analyst, (416) 360-3461 3
Don Maclean, Sr. Analyst, (416) 360-3459
September 20, 2006
Disclaimer Section:
1. Don Blyth does not have an ownership position in Sulliden Exploration (SUE-T).
2. Don MacLean does not have an ownership position in Sulliden Exploration (SUE-T)
3. Paradigm’s disclosure policies and research distribution procedures can be found on our website
at www.paradigmcapinc.com.
Research Rating System:
Paradigm Capital uses the following rating recommendations in its research:
Strong Buy – Analysts’ top sector picks, with expected returns of 10% or more over the next 6-12
months. (3% of Paradigm’s coverage list consists of Strong Buy recommendations).
Buy – Expected returns of 10% or more over the next 6-12 months. (71% of Paradigm’s coverage list
consists of Buy recommendations).
Hold – Expected returns of +/-10% over the next 6-12 months. (11% of Paradigm’s coverage list
consists of Hold recommendations).
Sell – Expected returns of –10% or more over the next 6-12 months. (3% of Paradigm’s coverage list
consists of Sell recommendations).
Speculative Buy – Expected returns of 10% or more over the next 6-12 months on high-risk
development or “pre-revenue” companies, such as junior mining and early stage biotech companies.
(12% of Paradigm’s coverage list consists of Speculative Buy recommendations).
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