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RoBTV: David Cockfield on Oil

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David Cockfield, senior vice president, Leon Frazer & Associates

On Oil:
I think we are seeing some of the hedge fund action on the market..I suspect we are going to have some pressure until this contract disappears, probably a week away..I do not see any change in the basics of the market..there have been some revisions down in terms of available non-OPEC production for 2007..there has also been shorting, then price will bounce back even faster

Oil, Gas Target:
I am more comfortable with $65, reasonable level..gas is North American commodity..think worst is over..production is lagging in Canada because they did not drill with price down..in meantime, tar sands absorbing more natural gas..with us exporting less to US, see price firming up quite nicely

Supply and Demand:
Nothing has really changed..I think there is lot of speculation..US economy ran well at $60..no fear that $65 oil would put US economy into recession..there has been concern about US recession and that would result in drop in consumption..in 2007 could see supplies tightening and demand continuing strong from India and China..

Oil Sands:
I am not as enthusiastic about oil sands as some others..there are real cost factors that have come in to raise cost/barrel..fighting to keep under $20, cuts margins down..technology still has some glitches in it..problem is oil sands companies with open land and no facilities..

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