RE: End of daySuncor has not been sold off with falling oil either, nor did yesterdays earnings put a real damper on it. I think you will find that if SU does not fall in line with oil prices that it is unlikely to rise with them either.
For example, oil traded in the $60-$65 range from mid September until the end of December. Suncor bottomed at $72.00 in Sept. after hittng about $97.00 in August. The sell-off then was overdone and Suncor bounced back into a nice uptrend peaking at $95.00 in December depite WTI still trading in the $60-$65 range. This said, if oil was the only factor in valuing SU then we should see it trading in the $70's. Obvoiusly, there are other factors at play here.
Is the outlook positive long-term?
Is oil going back into the $60's or highr?
Will SU get taken out by BP?
I don't know the answer to any of these. No secret that I am bearish on oils and SU at the moment but if the answer to any of those questions is YES then SU will remain strong. I guess what I am saying is don't complain - it should be alot worse from where I am sitting. I loved SU at $75 and happily traded it all the way up to $95 although I was more nervous with the long side at that price. I caught the correction at the beginning of the month on the short side and in hindsight would have been tickled had I covered at $82 but I got surprised when it bounced back to $87. It then looked like it might get beaten down again but bounced off $84. Maybe a new dynamic in play, don't know.
I am sidelining with this one again (for real) until we pick up a new direction.