RE: Any possible share price targetsHiya 545223, I have a little difficulty agreeing with your global market estimate of 2.5 billion, here is why; although I would accept your market figure with regard to estimated global drug sales related to stroke at present, the fact of the matter is that there are no effective THERAPEUTIC drugs for post-stroke treatments on the market right now.
Don't get me wrong your current figure of 2.5 billion for stroke related drug sales seems to be accurate but these are mostly drugs related to prevent stroke recurrance such as blood thinners. The advent of a succesful NTX-265 will not diminish this stroke market, but rather bolster it. In other words the patient will continue to take blood thinners and also commence a regimen of NTX-265 to regenerate destroyed and damaged brain cells. So to use the aforementioned figure would not, in my opinion be the correct base number to use in estimating the market.
I mentioned in a previous post my experience with Biochem's 3TC, prior to this drugs development AZT was the standard and only treatment for the AIDS virus. Rather than supplant AZT, biochems 3TC was used in conjunction with AZT in the so called cocktail, in other words if you were taking AZT then you subsequently started taking 3TC in tandem, therefore doubling the market for AIDS drugs once FDA approval for 3TC was granted.
Bringing this back to you question I believe that if the global market for stroke related phamaceuticals is currently 2.5 billion I believe that this market will at least double on FDA approval of
NTX-265 to 5 billion and this not considering as you correctly pointed out in an earlier post the brain trauma market which could be comprable to the stroke market.
A patient who has been a victim of stroke will continue to receive medications currently precribed but will aslo receive NTX-265 and the hope is that most every patient will be suitable for this regenerative post stroke therapy.
I see a potential global market for a succesfull FDA approved NTX-265 of approx $5 billion USD per year allowing for the stroke and trauma markets only. From there well there is a whole plethoria of possible applications as they relate to other cell degenerative diseases such as Parkinsons or Alzheimers...etc.
So what kind of valuation do you put on 5 billion USD in sales with 100 million outstanding and a royalty agreement after contracting out the production? Very hard to put a figure on a valuation as price points and royaly agreements would be critical in establishing a figure but if 50% of revenues accrued to SSS were looking at 2.5 billion a year, then extrapolate margins which would be high based on a royalty agreement and there sure would be a lot of cream to go around.
All speculation and opinion on my part but in the event of FDA approval I believe this would not be too far off.