Irrational pessimism?If we can have irrational exuberance, it stands to reason that we can have irrational pessimism. How far will pessimism push down the SP, who knows? IMHO just the lack of anything negative on the 15th should be worth a bump up. The whiff of something positive coming soon would give it a substantial boost.
Is it rational to put zero value on disruptive technology with a clear advantage on price, packaging, and performance like TDEL? Is it rational to put zero value on Ifire which has the collaborative support of Sanyo and Dai Nippon, a legitimate shot of making it in an industry as large as the TV industry, prototypes shown to work, and possibly on the verge of proving mass production viability via it’s pilot plant? Not in my opinion.
One should never become complacent, ignore the risks, and invest too much of one’s assets in any one stock of course. If one does, it may result in more lessons from the portfolio management school of hard knocks.
That said, it is also just as nuts to ignore the potential that Ifire brings to the table. If and when a JV not heavily involved in LCD or Plasma has enough proof to say were in, it may well come in the form of a news release over night. The big boys are going to be all over it and the SP will gap up big time. If you’re not onboard, you will be left at the station saying what if. Check out the the dollar plus moves Jan 11 and 12 on no news or March 27 and 28 after a technical update. How fast would it move up from it’s current base? SP may continue to drift. Then again, an institutional investor may decide it’s time to start reestablishing a position and push it back up.
Timing the bottom is hard to do at the best of times with any stock. Blind luck IMO if you get it right on this one. Wish everybody well either way.