GREY:SXHHF - Post by User
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commissionson Feb 15, 2007 11:10am
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Post# 12242062
RE: News
RE: NewsThis is unbelievable - Aearo has been accorded a 'Worldwide License' for testing. What a gigantic cash cow this is going to be for SHH!!! They did not put any numbers to how much they get per test - but lets just think about this for a second and make some conservative guess-stimates:
1. I would doubt that they would be giving it away : i.e. for $1 a test - this is proprietary software developed over many years by SHH - I would guess that its probably in the $5 - $10 range per test.
2. Aearo is the #1 player in this field and probably has 30% - 40% of the testing market - therefore based on the US alone thats 10 - 12 million tests a year. On the low end of $5/test and the low end of tests 10 million - thats $50,000,000 /year - on the high end thats $10/test times 12 million tests - thats $120,000,000 /year!!!
3. THATS FREE CASH FLOW AS THE DEVELOPMENT COSTS ARE BEHIND THEM!
4. THATS RECURRING CASH FLOW AS THESE TESTS ARE DONE EVERY YEAR!
5. Factor in the rest of the world @ 30% - the low end and thats 21 million more tests - @ $5 /test - again low end - thats an additional $100,000,000 /year in free cash flow. Therefore they will at full speed be doing something like $170,000,000 - $220,000,000 a year .
6. W e know this is going to be reoccurring revenue as it is Legislation that covers these 30 million workers in the US and probably the balance worldwide.
Currently there are approx 120 million shares - thats $1.70 - $2.20 in net earnings - what multiple do you put on that???
It does not matter because if these numbers are even half as good as my math this company would be lucky to see the light of day at $1.50 - $2.00 as I would expect that Aearo would simply buy them out and keep that money in their pockets.
All we need is some indication from the company as to the $'s amount per test and we're done. Remember half of what I calculated would be $2.50 /test - worldwide at 30% of all the tests and that will still be $85,000,000 /year.
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