Bob HoyeAny one here follows Bob Hoye?
I encountered a report by him this morning, and he was saying Committment of Trader shows that an extreme positon of commercial shorts. This is very negative for gold. Last week, he had similar report and said the same thing, and resource stocks got slaughtered big time last week.
But he did not make it clear, the data was last Tuesday's data, so it was a week old, and with gold price dropped so much already, the data may not be as bad as it showed in today's report.
However, my experience in the last few years told me that it is NOT fruitful to fight those commercial shorts, they are always right anyway, at least they were always right before. I know GATA and some people think those commercial shorts should be slaughtered, but every time when they think they have a class at hand, those speculators and gold price got slaughtered instead, and so as gold stocks. Thus, I concluded that: do NOT ever fight with commercial shorts. They have so much money and eventually they could turn the tide around.
The data showed that commercial have a large amount of shorts last Tuesday and gold can be in period of volativity. I am not sure it will last until April as indicated by Hob Hoye, but those people who studied cycle often indicates that April or May this year will the gold price bottom. I treat those cycle studies as a reference only as they could be wrong like every one else.