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First Asset Morningstar Emerging Markets Composite T.EXM.A



TSX:EXM.A - Post by User

Post by mrmrreon Mar 09, 2007 8:12am
267 Views
Post# 12386780

Valuing EXM

Valuing EXMI use a pretty easy formula for valuing jr producers (which EXM is about to become) I use "fair value" at $3000 per ounce of production, assuming cash costs are reasonable and minimum political risk. EXMIN's share of Moris should be about 20,000 gold equivilant ounces. Therefore, 30% of Moris is worth about $60MM. That would support a price for EXM shares at about C$.90. Now Moris is unique in that it is a "bootstrap" operation. They are re-opening the mine based on limited reserves from past drilling by Manhattan that was confirmed with about 1000' of drilling by Hochschild. Now I am sure that these are not the grades that Dr Gibson and Hochschild expect to find within the district. Keep in mind, Hochschild looked at dozens of projects in Mexico, before starting with Moris. Dr Gibson advised them on many of the other projects that they passed on. I personally think that Moris will grow into a much more significant operation or Hochschild would not have bothered. At any rate, the current price of EXM is more than supported by the Moris production. Everything else is a bonus. I can tell you that there are not two better partners to have than Hochschild and Penoles. This speaks volumes about the projects and management at EXM. Penoles has many, many projects of their own in Mexico. They must see something they really like at Maguarichic to JV and pay for the drilling. We still have not heard about the warrant exercises and how much money EXM has raised. But Karl is comitted to keeeping dilution low. I just hope this market gets itself straightened out so that he can raise some capital at over $1 per share. Dont fret the volitility in the stock, just keep buying pullbacks. With Moris coming on line in Q3, there wont be many more.
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