Victoria Gold Corp VITFF

RE: Carry trade unwinding and impact on gold

[Windrunner]

akcy I will give you one (or two) other considerations that I read in James Turks book that I had not thought of and that's demographics. Consumer debt and mortgages are more than likely (or greatest majority) held by the 20-45 age group. These people will be highly affected by increases in interest rates or a collapse in the housing market. They will not have the financial resources to weather a storm. The 45-55 age group are more than likely to have less mortgage debt (some home equity)and some consumer debt. They could have resources to keep their heads above water. Now the baby boomers 55+ would have little to no mortgage debt and possibly little consumer debt that a storm could effect. However it would impact their retirement savings years. Now one thing the book pointed out is that this generation (and even older) are going to be spending rather than saving. This being the biggest generation the world has ever seen. They will preserve capital as best they can but they probably represent the greatest majortiy of the money in the markets today. The markets no matter how much cash is available may not be able to attract money back. You could call all this consumer confidence and that's another thing governments worry about as it represents 2/3 thirds of the market. Not sure where you stand in the demographic picture but I'm a boomer and I'm as alert as you to what is happening around the world. Having seen the housing collapse in the early 80's, a lot of people did not have the resources to invest in the market afterwards and missed the huge runup in the markets that started in 1982. Just read Peter Lynch's book on how well he did in the 80's with the resources he had. Keep in mind when Japan's market collapsed in the 1990, 27 years later they still have not regained their all time highs. Their greatest demographics is actually 10 years older than our boomers, so their confidence in the market never recovered until 2003. I think some of those deep thinkers out there are using that as a guide to what could happen in North America. I would add demographics and consumer confidence to your list. Cheers