TSXV:KUR.H - Post by User
Comment by
DAbramovon Mar 10, 2007 9:55am
241 Views
Post# 12393805
My opinions
My opinionsPeople need to understand the difference between a "basher" and a "realist".
Look at this picture objectively.
UBS/Look have obviously not had a firm offer on the table as of yet, as it would be material information.
BCE is showing no signs of interest at this point in time. They seem to be more concerned with programming (i.e. acquisition of CHUM and other content providers) vs. actual network specifics. The JV they have with Rogers in Inukshuk is sufficient to them (in my opinion).
The threat that BCE feels is the lawsuit. Had they not felt this threat, they would not have (in my opinion again) approached LSRSG LLP to assist them with a "different" matter and thus cause a conflict of interest.
Rogers has always been at the table and with the excess cash in the bank the company has, there is no significant need to do any type of capital offerings.
Telus on the other hand has raised close the $3 Billion in credit and capital (via public offering of debt securities) that it will use $1.5 Billion of to retire the debt that matures on June 2007.
What will the other $1.5 Billion be used for? My "guess" would be 33% for purchasing Look assets and 66% for the auction.
One may be wise to note that Telus' offering and credit facility will not be fully in place until March 13th and later (perhaps as late as the end of March) to adjust their accounts to accurately reflect the increased funds.
This means that a firm offer for Look, at least from Telus' perspective, will not be with us until early to mid April.
Therefore, until such time, I firmly believe the share price will trend sideways (and slightly lower).
Should the offer from Telus be the case, that would mean that UBS/LOOK would be getting an offer of $500M for the co. This is equivalent (and I will provide a valuation on a fully diluted basis, with 51% ownership by UBS) to $2.50/share - UBS.
Not too shabby from Telus' perspective as the tax loss assets become theirs, thus reducing the cost of purchase by approximately $160-$200M;
they would have a VERY strong position in spectrum and service offering against their arch rivals R&B;
They will have an EXTREMELY strong case against R&B in their MCS spectrum (i.e. Inukshuk);
They can destroy their R&B competition should they WIN the lawsuit;
They'll add roughly 50k subscribers to their bottom-line, which the shareholders will LOVE;
They'll have the ONLY broadcast license for mobile content delivery in CANADA.
So essentially, Telus would be MAKING MONEY, not spending it, if they choose to offer $500M for the company.
Just an opinion and nothing more.
All responses always welcome.
D-man