NAVI have been hoding back in posting this, although I read it when issued on the 16th. I wanted to see if anybody else out there had independent #'s that would be vastly different. However, here is a quote from Tristone on NAV, issued on the 16th.
"Net Asset Value Drops to ~$11/sh
On the updated reserve base, our NAV estimate decreases to $11.07 after-tax on our strip
pricing from $13.66/sh previously, as reserve growth did not materialize and debt levels
increased Y/Y (see Exhibit 2). Our pre-tax NAV falls to $13.04/sh from $16.41/sh. At its
current share price, Real trades at a P/NAV of 0.8x. The market quickly digested the updated
reserves yesterday, and the stock was revalued on the new reserve base. We expect Real may
trade at a discount on this metric until its exhibits solid indications of production and reserve
growth."
For your own financial well being, pls be careful to NOT fall in love with a stock. I have found myself falling into that trap from time to time over MANY years, and end up getting slapped around. Also, beware of believing too much in what mgmt has to say. Do listen to them, but with a skeptcial eye. That also includes analyst reports (who knows, maybe Tristone is active on the short side, right?). So in this case, I'd assume that truth lies somewhere in between. Call me skeptical/cynical overall, and always.
RER has some events that have happened in the last Q that should be corrected in subsequent Q's. My guess is that if those can be addressed, the next rpt should be better. They have lots of land available for drilling, so that's good, although we are in drilling shoulder season, that may take a few Q's to materialize in significant production increases.
My guess/feeling is that buying around these levels may not be bad for the next 12 months......but that's just a guess, since that assumes that the problems are behind them. Who knows if there are any more cockroaches to surface out of this one, right?