TSXV:CVI.P - Post by User
Comment by
maxamillionon Mar 19, 2007 8:29pm
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Post# 12447660
RE: New Jennings Report
RE: New Jennings ReportDrilling delayed, CPF delayed, well production down 50%, did I miss the good stuff??
There are four significant changes from our last valuation:
· We have delayed the start-up of the CPF until May 2007, and are
limiting production to 5,600 Bbl/d during March and April, in respect
of the ongoing construction related shut-ins.
· Reduced production for three Hiswah wells.
Our previous production forecasts allowed for superior results from three wells
(H-6, 8 and 10), based on drilling and logging results. Our mid case analysis had
used rates of 7,500 Bbl/d from each of those three wells. We have reduced that
estimate to approximately 3,100 Bbl/d. These wells may well achieve the higher
rates in time, but given the plans for testing the alternative completion and
stimulation schemes, we believe it is prudent to temper our current expectations.
We have re-examined and changed the trading multiples for DACF.
(See Trading Multiples below)
· We have incorporated the pricing as per the marketing agreement
that we estimate will average a US$1.10/Bbl discount to Brent crude.
Evaluation Price Forecasts
Brent Wellhead F/X
(US$/Bbl) (US$/Bbl) (US$/C$)
2007 $61.40 $60.30 0.86
2008 $62.50 $61.40 0.86
2009 $60.80 $59.70 0.86
2010 $59.40 $58.30 0.86
2011 $58.30 $57.20 0.86