RE: What a mess.
Do you know what the short position was and whether it increased just before the quarter?
Lincoln has shown up in each of the last several years with reserve developments. The fact that they have not fixed it yet probably means it is quite serious. Prem Watsa of Fairfax Financial has long insisted that the Managing General Agent system was a pathway to ruin. Could he be right?
I also think the stock price will now drift lower. I would expect it to go lower than your estimate of $19 since there seems to be no rational reason to buy the stock now. ( unless, of course you are covering a short position )
So much potential if they could only get their act together on the underwriting side.