RE: AUA GUYVENMan stated:
"AUA has Reserves of 143.7 tonnes and they want to produce over 20 years so that’s 7 million pounds a year."
This is false. Adanac has stated they will be producing roughly 14 Million pounds per year. It's in the bankable feasibility (which you obviously haven't read, and I believe its also been in the news releases). This could be upped to 18 Million pounds if the grade increase is proven correct. You really need to improve on your dd!
"Moly Mines,
25 million pounds X 37.10 per pound = $927.5 million Gross Sales
30 million pounds X 3.5 per copper pound = $105 million Gross Sales"
Once again, you are quoting 25 Million pounds of Moly production per year out of Moly mines, when they don't have any kind of Bankable Feasibility to back it up. If they do have one that states 25 Million pounds per year, then I'll run those numbers and assess it. Why bother when it is simply a guess at this point. Don't forget Adanac's Moly gets a 10% premium due to the lack of impurities found when the moly extracted is a copper by-product.
So the 0.65 you quote for adanac is actually 0.65 * (double the moly per year as per the BFS) *1.1 for premium costs = 1.43 to your 1.59 (assuming your numbers are accurate!)
So assuming everything you say is true, your project would be about 11% better than Adanac's, so then why is your stock more than double Adanac's? Also please recall Adanac is 1.25 years ahead in terms of producing...
Where you also messed up is assuming 143.7 Million tonnes of ore is the same thing as pounds of Moly!? That majorly screwed up your calculation by assuming that...the real number is 186.9 Million pounds of Moly (assuming no grade increase).
So take that ratio of yours of 1.43 * 186.9/143.7 = 1.86 for Adanac compared to Moly mines with only ratio of 1.59 (once again using your numbers).
Bottom line, yes your stock price reflects a higher price, but is it warranted?
For everyone else who isn't married to this stock, feel free to do your own dd to prove or disprove what I'm saying.
Good luck to all,
x
P.S. - You'd be better off just dropping the subject. I know both projects better than you do, and I am using real numbers vs. the fictious ones you are using.