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Crisis or Opportunity?
Equity losses have been painful; however, this is a time for bargain-hunting – not panic selling.
Share prices around the globe fell sharply in reaction to the subprime mortgage mess in the United States. As so often happens in a situation like this, perceptions have gone far beyond the reality of the situation. There was undoubtedly cause for concern in that market, but investors appear to have over-reacted. Panic selling that spread to other sectors of the investment world became a self-fulfilling prophecy as investors dumped other forms of debt and then equities. Falling prices were spurred on by selling caused by fund redemptions, accelerating the downward spiral.
There is so much nervousness in the markets that it is impossible to predict with any certainty what is coming next. A rational look at the markets suggests that a rebound is imminent, as has happened so many times in the past in a situation like this. Let us start with an objective look at the subprime mortgage situation – the trigger for the melt down. First, subprime mortgages represent only a small portion of the overall mortgage market in the United States. Actual defaults on subprime mortgages have been about 5% to date. So far, 85% of borrowers in that market continue to make timely payments.
Inevitably, the default figures will get worse. But, remember, those loans are all backed by real estate. Undoubtedly, the value of the real estate will fall short of the loan amount in those cases where the borrowers default. To explore the potential implication, assume the delinquency rate was to soar to 25% and as an example, suppose that in each of those cases the realized value of the collateral falls 25% short of the loan amount. Then, the overall subprime market would lose about 7% of its value. That is hardly a catastrophic event for the world economy.
It is a classic reality that markets are driven by reactions to front page headlines. Profits are made by those investors who take the time to digest the details buried in the news articles. The present situation appears to follow that pattern.
A recent Associated Press headline screamed: “Existing Home Sales Fall in 41 States”and the lead paragraph expanded on that dire news with the observation that “home prices were down in one-third of the metropolitan areas surveyed.” Investors who took the time to read the whole article found that there were “price gains for 65 percent of the areas surveyed” compared to a year ago. That same article goes on to quote a real estate expert who notes that “the fundamental momentum clearly suggests stabilizing price trends in many local markets.”
The subprime situation has spurred lenders and investors around the world to take a fresh look at risk with respect to their investments. That means that money for such things as leveraged buyouts has become harder to source. That is a good thing, as some of the private equity deals that were being done bordered on ludicrous. Holders of subprime mortgages may be in jeapardy of seeing losses. However, the more important debt markets are still in good shape. For example, the global default rates on corporate bonds are at historic lows.
While hedge funds and private equity funds have reduced the rate of new investments, money is still coming in to the markets from two sources that are growing ever more important. Sovereign wealth funds are pumping huge amounts of capital into the global investment markets. Primarily backed by oil exporting nations, these funds are increasingly investing in Western capital markets.
Central Bank foreign currency reserves are also being deployed in more entrepreneurial ways than was the case in the past. China, with a $1.3 trillion of foreign reserves, now leads the world and is seeking to deploy a significant portion of its enormous wealth in ways that generate a real return.
In spite of the perception created by many of the headlines, the U. S. economy continues to expand, albeit slower than most investors would like. Most importantly, the rest of the world continues to grow at a fast pace, making the U. S. economy less important over time in the context of world economic growth.
One of the important implications is that the U. S. dollar remains under downward pressure. The steady shift of wealth away from the U. S. will continue to erode the value of the dollar. Hard assets such as gold and other metals will remain an important hedge. Resource backed currencies such as the Canadian dollar will hold value better than the U. S. dollar.
Global demand for metals has not been impacted in any way by the fears surrounding the American subprime mortgage market. Exploration and development companies will continue to be rewarded for success.
The most important implication is that panic selling of resource companies has created many outstanding buying opportunities. I expect prices to rebound fairly quickly as investors gain a better understanding of the realities of the current situation.
-Lawrence Roulston