GREY:GRFJF - Post by User
Post by
loantech1on Aug 20, 2007 3:57pm
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Post# 13273531
HUGH CLELAND UPDATES HIS WGI MESSAGE!
HUGH CLELAND UPDATES HIS WGI MESSAGE!Western Goldfields: Actually, this one has held up better than most. From a June low of about $2.08, it hit a July high of about $3.10. It was quite a rude shock, however, when I saw a number of market-sell orders (probably margin calls) take it down to $1.75 within 20 minutes of the open on Thursday, August 16, 2007. (August 16th has been the bottom to date.) It closed Friday (the next day) at $2.44. Six features of Western Goldfields continue to make it a core position:
1) World-class management, starting with Randall Oliphant, former CEO of Barrick Gold. Randall convinced a top-notch mine-development team to join him from Barrick, including President Ray Threlkeld.
2) World-class resource: The NI43-101 resource now stands at close to 4 million of proven and probable gold ounces.
3) Location: continental USA means no political risk, and its fully permitted.
4) The company is fully financed to production, including all necessary debt and equity. (i.e., the only way to acquire shares now is in the open market.)
5) Management is exceeding expectations, having recently announced that the mine will be going into production in January 2008, 3-4 months ahead of the previous guidance. (That almost never happens in the mining industry…)
6) Valuation: with the mine going into production in January, Western Goldfields is in the process of being re-rated from a pre-production multiple of ½ times NAV to the 1 to 1.5x NAV multiple that a producer gets. Bottom-line: with an NAV in the $4-$5 range (depending on the assumptions you want to use), the stock should be in the $4.00 to $7.50 range by February 2008, only six months away.
https://www.northernriversfunds.com/assets/downloads/Cleland%20-%20July%202007.pdf