Thank you for that Seuss.....Your LINK seuss does prove that Xstrata did offer a company A$391M, with the Board of Directors approval, and this offer was voted down by the shareholders anyway.
It also proves that they did recover after this as Gloucester's share price is now A$4.60 compare to the start of this takeover, which was only A$3.60 or so. This was even after several of their top management later quit.
What I did notice though, and a different, was that Xstrata's bid was an all cash bid, and thus a complete takeover, verses ours, and being a merger. But in all fairness they could have sold their shares and bought Xstrata Shares, if they wanted a part in the bigger company, so what is the difference really. Maybe they had a better offer, as they still would have gotten the same premium from either cash or shares, but had more choices.
But the main point of discussion here, and what I did notice in this deal, was that Xstrata did not come back with a higher bid, as everyone here seems to expect Sino Gold will do. At least not so far from their first bid in April, and after this was voted down by the shareholders in July. So the fact is, Xstrata has now had 2 full months to up their bid, if they were planning to, and in which now looks like they won't.
Gloucester's share price jumped from A$3.60 in April, and when this bid was announced, to A$5.75, just like our share price did on the Sino Offer, but it also fell back to around A$3.90 after the shareholders rejected this offer. Our share price is still unknown yet, as it is dependant on the voting results.
To be honest seuss, this is the part the worries me the most as I am not so confident as you, and many here are, that we are large or strong enough now to come back like Gloucester or Nova Gold for that matter. Maybe we'll just see more share dilution, lower prices, and then become a victim of a hostile takeover cash bid at a much lower price then we are offered now.
Gloucester was trading near their all time high, when this offer was made, just like Sino Gold when they made their offer, but we were trading at near our all time low.
Assuming that our share price also drops back to when this all got started, like theirs, which for us was around C$0.85, or was it less, and maybe more like C$0.60??? No way of knowing really, so I guess no point in debating it either!
But do I personally think we are getting a fare price for our shares right now? No! I don't! Never did! But then I am not technically selling them either, am I?
If I was waiting for a C$1.12 per share, I would have sold these shares long ago and walked away a happy man. But what I am thinking of doing now is swapping them, at a premium from the crap we were offered before, for a company I have become quite impressed with and who obviously has done much better than we have in China. I can also see a significant share price increase for Sino Gold, like I did with Golden China Resources, except I believe they would get there quicker. The key to making money and being rich is to make it faster then everyone else.
I think we all can agree that we do not know for sure if Sino Gold will come back with a better offer, if we reject this one. I think we all can also agree that we don't know where our share price would go if we reject this deal, although logic would say that since we were selling at C$0.85 before this announcement, and we are now trading ~C$1.13 after this news, it will probably go down.
So this brings me to my point, and that is which way should one choose on this voting? To either go with the Devil we know, or to go with the Devil we don't know? It all boils down to this!
I for one don't like surprises in my investments, nor do I like gambling with them either. Some may laugh in that investing in a junior gold is already a gamble, but a lot of this risk is taken out if you research them as much as I do, and long before I invest in them.
So I look and see both sides of this coin right now, having researched Sino Gold as well, and I prefer to join Sino Gold then try to do this on our own. Especially at a time when the market does not love us.
Although I will say honestly that since this annoucement was made, we have gotten a lot of media attention from around the world. So who knows now for sure what would happen. But is it worth the gamble to find out? I for one did not like being stuck in "Never Never Land", like we were.
But anyway, I do honestly want to thank you seuss for your links, as it was very informative and also very educational for me, as it does prove shareholders can vote down a bid, even with the directors approval of it.
The only question remaining now is what would happen to us if we did vote this down, since we already know what will happen to us if we don't.
GB