$1,000 -plus Gold Ahead Say Experts Over forty economists finally agree on something
By David Bradshaw, Editor RMP
Oct 6, 2007
The commodity super-cycle has swept gold prices to nearly triple since 2001 -- but that's just the kickoff say the experts.
How high will this bull market in "real money" and commodities drive gold prices over the next 5 to 15 years? Get ready to be shocked!
Gold prices have grown about $100/oz. per year since 2003. Gold was $300 in '03, $400 in '04, $500 in '05, $600 in '06 and now $700 in '07. Savvy investors and gold experts see $800 gold in 2008!
Recently many analysts have jumped onto the $1,000/oz. plus gold bandwagon -- most of whom were not considered "gold bugs" in the past, like Citibank and JP Morgan & Co.
Here's a list of forty-two prominent analysts, authors and gold experts already on the record forecasting four-digit gold prices to arrive in the years ahead. Their combined gold price expectation is $2,000/oz. gold!
Count for yourself the dozens of good reasons for owning gold today, which these experts suggest will drive gold prices sky high. I've listed two dozen reasons at the conclusion.
JOHN HILL and GRAHAM WARK - Citibank analysts
"A'Reflationary Rescue', in a new cycle of global credit creation and competititive currency devaluations could take gold to $1,000 an ounce, or higher. Central banks have been forced to choose between global recession or sacrificing control of gold, and have chosen the perceived lesser of two evils." -London Telegraph, 10-1-07.
PAUL O’BRIEN, Analyst, Raymond James
"We believe this rally is still in its infancy with a ‘toe in the water’ ahead of the upcoming 4Q. The gains for gold can be attributed to the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and continued weakness for the greenback." -National Post, 9-24-07
AUBIE BALTIN, CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD
"When FEAR combines with full blown Greed, there is no longer any more talk of correction as prices begin to jump 5% to 10% in one day and people line up to buy bullion as signs pop up everywhere, “WE buy and sell gold”. Once both fear and greed take over the market and the short squeezes begin in earnest, there is no way of predicting how high the high. $2,200 gold and $100 silver seems the barest minimum targets, maybe $5,000 or even $10,000." -FiendBear, 9-24-07
JOHN HILL, Analyst, Citigroup
"Gold appears to be entering a new investment-driven phase and has re-asserted itself as a safe haven. Gold will be one of the top beneficiaries of the “Re-flationary Rescue,” which should bode well for hard assets and basic materials. I would not be surprised if gold were to break its all-time high of $850, or even $1,000 or higher in a new cycle of global credit creation and competitive currency devaluations." -National Post, 9-21-07
CHRISTOPHER WOOD, Chief strategist, CLSA
"Market ructions, the sub-prime conflagration and a collapse of the dollar could send gold prices to more than $3,400 an ounce within the next three years. This is not a sub-prime crisis. Sub-prime has merely exposed the bigger scam of structured finance; a scam that is about pretending that bad credit is good credit." -London Times, 9-19-07
AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD, International Business Editor, London Telegraph
"Gold will fly once investors can see that neither of the two reserve currency pillars (euro and dollar) is on a sound foundation, and once the pair are engaged in a beggar-thy-neighbor devaluation contest to stave off a slump, this would amount to a partial breakdown of the monetary system. Gold will not stop at $800. It might well go beyond $2,000." -London Telegraph, 7-23-07
NED W. SCHMIDT, CFA, CEBS, Schmidt Management Co.
"Monetary illusion evident in the value of paper equities versus the return on paper equities should not be ignored. Asset meltdown now taking place below the surface in mortgage related investments held by speculative hedge funds. As that happens and carnage spreads, the U.S. dollar will come under increasing selling pressure. Gold will be the investment that benefits, and continue the move to more than $1,400." -Financial Sense, 6-20-07
JP MORGAN CHASE & CO, Third largest U.S. bank
"Gold may rise to more than $1,000 an ounce as demand from India, China and exchange traded funds increases and production of precious metal falls." -Bloomberg 6-7-07
DAVID ROSENBERG, Economist, Merrill Lynch
"The current bull market for gold could last another five years, if certain conditions are in place, and the metal's price could soar to an incredible $1,500/oz. Investors should buy gold to beat the current period of stagflation." , -Platts , 4-11-07
JIM SINCLAIR, Author, Chairman of Tan Range JS Mineset
"Gold has no agenda, no allegiance and functions as honest money in a world of lies, corruption, overstatement and spin. $700 to $705 might well be a place certain interests will try and block gold, but their only hope is for momentary success. $761 is yanking at gold from the front with great power. $887.50, a break above $1000 and $1650 are putting their grip on the royal metal as well." JSmineset.com, 2-25-07
LOUISE YAMADA, Managing Director -- Yamada Technical Research Advisors
"Gold is the purest play against the dollar. I see gold surpassing $730 in 2007 on its way to $3,000 within a decade. Gold is probably the most straightforward investment to go with in this environment because of its consistent inverse relationship to the dollar.Other countries are trying to diversify their dollar holdings. They're buying gold and anything they can to get out of the dollar." Bloomberg, 12/11/06
PHILIP MANDUCA, Managing Director -- Titanium Capital Ltd.
"Gold is still by far the optimal choice for most investors to play. It's been successful in '04, '05 and '06. Gold will be through $1,000 in the next 18 months." -Bloomberg, 11-29-06
JULIAN PHILLIPS, Analyst -- GoldForecaster.com
"We would not be surprised to see $1,000-plus gold from sometime in 2007 at the earliest to 2009 at the latest. Physical demand is now being added to by the turnaround in hedge funds' change of heart to the upside. The potential oil shortage and more-than-likely ruptures in the stability of the global-money system when the dollar starts to suppurate." -Marketwatch, 11-3-06
DR. CLIVE ROFFEY, Elliot Wave Theory Analyst/Publisher -- Gold Action
"I believe that the current correction is a more likely to be a minor before a move to well above the previous $720 peak, probably above $800. When the minor correction should occur leading to a wave five that will eventually peak well above $1,000 before we hit the next major correction." -321gold, 10-6-06.
HOWARD RUFF, Editor -- The Ruff Times
"Gold and silver are now early in a historic bull market that will dwarf the 500-1700% profits we made in the '70s. Gold will hit at least $2,172 and $100 silver is inevitable. Investment vehicles to avoid: Stocks, bonds, fixed-return investments like utilities, REITs, residential real estate, ARMS (adjustable rate mortgages). Investment winners in bull markets: Gold, silver, copper and other base metals, uranium. The most powerful, completely essential factor affecting gold is monetary inflation. The most compelling force affecting silver today is the supply/demand equation." -Marketwatch, 8-24-06
DR. DAVID DAVIS, Senior Gold Analyst -- Credit Suisse Standard Securities
"Between 2007 and 2010, supply-and-demand dynamics will undergo irreversible change, caused by a decline in global mine and official sector supply and increased demand from China and the investment community. We still see a gold price of $700/oz, $800/oz and $1,200/oz by 2008, 2010, and 2015 respectively." -Resource Investor, 8-4-06
ROBERT KIYOSAKI, Author -- Rich Dad
"I still think gold will go to $1,500 an ounce. I'm betting against the U.S. dollar. Gold is a hedge against U.S. government mismanagement. My family members have a tradition of saving all their spare change for months on end and then trading all the coins in for a single gold coin." -Washington Post, 6/20/06
STEPHEN LEEB, Author -- The Coming Economic Collapse
"Gold took a hit last week, falling 5.7%. As with other commodities, gold was perhaps due for a correction and responded to Bernanke's tougher words. We could see it drift a little lower -- between $580 and $600. But this downside is paltry compared to the upside potential for gold. Gold could reach a price many times higher than it's at today, regardless of whether inflation or deflation becomes the problem. So we remain buyers of gold along with energy and our low-risk hedges." The Complete Investor -6-12-06
HARRY SCHULTZ, Analyst -- International Harry Schultz Letter
"My view has always been: current governments (which are bank-owned) won't voluntarily return to a gold standard, with its discipline on money creation. But, when the price roars to, say $1,600, they'll quite possibly be forced to do so, to appease a clamor for sound money - e.g. Bretton Woods II. The price could go to $2,000 while they debate new rules. Washington insiders would see it as their last chance to save the US dollar as a reserve currency. If they don't, the euro, yen or yuan could make a bid for that status ... If no rules are made at $1,600, gold could keep climbing till they do. Hello $3,000." -MW, 6-5-06
PAUL MYLCHREEST, Analyst -- Cheuvreux Investment
"We also see the possibility of a spike to $2,000 or higher, if the story on diminished central bank gold reserves becomes widely accepted, if central banks in countries with large US dollar holdings compete to buy gold and diversify forex reserves away from dollars, and if the U.S. economy slides into either high rates of inflation or deflation." -Mineweb, 2-6-06.
JIM CRAMER, Founder -- Thestreet.com, Host -- Mad Money, Real Money
"Gold could reach $1,000 if the Chinese stop buying our paper. Once the levee to the Treasuries breaks, the easy high ground worth gaining will be gold. Any portfolio designed to counter government-mandated inflation has to be bedrocked in gold" -New York magazine, Oct. 10, 2005
JAMES TURK, Founder -- Goldmoney.com
"Gold is going much higher, and the $8,000 [per ounce] I mentioned a couple of years ago is probably as good a target as any. There are two aspects to what's driving the gold price: First, there is strong physical demand around the world. When gold crossed the $500-an-ounce level, people started buying gold in anticipation of monetary problems. Second, the physical demand for gold is causing a huge problem for the gold shorts. There has been a large gold carry trade in place. It is very possible gold could have a massive spike in the next six to 12 months to as high as $2,000, driven by these factors." "GOLD MINE" -Barrons, 5/29/06
JIM ROGERS, Author/Adventurer -- Hot Commodities (former George Soros partner)
"Mr. Rogers, who foresaw the start of a commodity rally in 1999, told Bloomberg the boom in energy and raw material prices will endure, driving gold to a record $1,000 an ounce. The shortest bull market for commodities lasted 15 years, the longest 23 years, so if history is any guide, they've got a long way to go. This is not a bubble." -Bloomberg, 4-19-06
RICHARD RUSSELL, Editor -- Dow Theory Letters
"Gold is now being accepted as the fourth currency along with the dollar, the euro and the yen. But there is a difference. Gold is also being recognized as the tangible currency and the ONLY SAFE currency. That gold pays no interest -- but is still at an 25-year high in terms of dollars -- is a testament to its value and safety in the eyes of sophisticated investors." Dowtheoryletters.com
J. TAYLOR, Editor -- J. Taylor's Gold and Technology Stocks
"This is a different gold bull market and most bullish of all is that fact that this is still a stealth bull market. The voice of the global market is just starting to express a declining confidence in the dollar but with a coverage of only 1.7% [in U.S. gold reserves] at close to $700/oz., I believe we are still in the very early stages of a major gold bull market. We have a long, long ways to go toward $3,000 and beyond." -Howestreet.com
JOHN HATHAWAY, Portfolio Manager -- Tocqueville Gold Fund
"Gold is in a bull-market trend, and there are a lot of reasons for that, and we will see higher prices. People shouldn't be surprised to see gold trade in the four digits." -Barrons ... "In truth, the price of gold at $600 is no big deal. In 1980 dollars, it is only $300. If prior highs mean anything, a target of $1700 in today�s dollars is what investors should be thinking about. Investors should worry less about whether this particular moment is a good or bad entry point and ponder the implications of sailing through uncharted waters without a lifeboat." -Tocqueville.com
MARC FABER, Author -- Tommorrow's Gold
"A vicious drop in the Dow coupled with a vicious rise in gold, possibly pushing gold to an astounding $2,000, $3,000 or even $6,000. Commodities are an asset class for the first time in history." Marketwatch.com
BILL BONNER, Author/Editor -- Daily Reckoning
"When the price of gold goes over $1,000, the bull market will be in its bubble phase. The price may go far higher - depending on what else is going on in the economy and the markets. But this will be a time to be careful...when we stop adding to our positions and begin to reduce them. Gold is now cheap and almost hidden. People are buying it for the right reason: because it is cheap. We see signs, though, that gold is coming out of the closet and the financial press is beginning to notice." Dailyreckoning.com
CRAIG R. SMITH, Author/CEO -- Swiss America
"Gold is clearly headed toward $1,000/oz. and is still a great bargain near $700/oz! Gold recently jumped over $700, and is overdue for a price correction -- which is the sure sign of a healthy bull market -- offering yet another opportunity to buy the dips in this ongoing secular bull market." -CNBC Squawk Box
Lord WILLIAM REES-MOGG, Author & Economist
"I expect gold to reach $1,000 an ounce in the foreseeable future. The price of gold is linked to the price of oil and to the movements of the dollar... oil is probably headed towards $100 a barrel. If there is any shooting in Iran, prices will go through the roof. That, however, is one reason for thinking that there may not be any attack on Iran. The world�s oil supply cannot afford it." -Money Week
ROBERT MCEWEN, CEO -- U.S. Gold Corp.
"Gold prices may reach $2,000 an ounce by 2010 on demand for an alternative to currencies. You have much more money than there is gold, and as people see their currencies falling relative to gold, they're going to be saying `Maybe I should have some of this'." -Bloomberg
PHILLIP GOTTHEFF, President/Commodities Analyst -- Equidex Inc.
"The gold market knows inflation is already here ... which helps explain the hysterical surge in prices in 2006... ETFs have expanded the metals market to now include institutional investors... With Goldman Saks forecasting $100+ oil I think we could see $1,000-1,500 gold easily... Why hoard? Because investors are afraid of paper. If we were to try to monetize our paper with gold the price would be in the $10,000/oz. - $20,000/oz. range." -CNBC "$1,000 gold debate" 5-9-06
JOHN PERSON, President -- National Futures Advisory Services
"As more and more investors start allocating more resources in gold, we could see $800 and as high as $1,000 by year's end. All the elements are in place for such a move, and it would not be unrealistic to achieve in a relatively short period of time." -Marketwatch.com
KEVIN KERR, Commentator/Author -- Marketwatch.com
"Golden Opportunity: The case for $1,000 an ounce... If your thing is to hold the actual gold in your hand then numismatics (coins) or bullion are the way to go." -Marketwatch.com
JOHN EMBRY, Chief Investment Strategist -- Sprott Asset Management
"Gold will hit at least $800 per ounce as paper money is going to hell in a handcart. Even a $1,000/oz gold price may be conservative." -MineWeb.com
PIERRE LASSONDE, President -- Newmont Mining Corp.
"The price of bullion may exceed $1,000 (U.S.) an ounce within five to seven years as demand growth driven by Asia outstrips global supply." Globeandmail
BILL MURPHY, Founder -- GATA.org, Lemetropolecafe.com
"What we are seeing is the result of years and years of a gold price suppression scheme BLOWING UP! Gold is moving up because the crooks have lost control! GOLD is going to go to $3,000/oz as more geopolitical problems arise." -GoldRush21
ROSS NORMAN, TheBullionDesk.com
"Yes, I do think we will be in the $700s perhaps late in the second quarter, or perhaps the third quarter of 2006 - the market seems incredibly robust both in terms of external factors like the correlation with the oil market that we�re still underperforming against - if the ratio held with that we�d be at about $1,000 an ounce now. I think it�s gaining strength from the ETFs and more corporate and pension money coming into the market on a regular day by day basis - all this conspires to make one believe that the market has got plenty of strength, that it�s �stronger for longer� as they say." -Thebulliondesk.com
ADAM HAMILTON, CPA -- Zeal Intelligence
"If our current gold rally truly unfolds into a Great Gold Rally, $1000 gold is merely the first stage. A gold bubble, which will probably ultimately happen as a way to climax the coming gold mania maybe five to seven years out, could easily launch gold above $5000 per ounce. The actual top of a new gold bubble at the final pinnacle of another Great Gold Rally could touch $6000+ per ounce!" -Zeallc.com
EMANUEL BALARIE, Senior Market Strategist -- Wisdom Financial
"I think gold prices will eventually shatter even my own bullish expectations of $1,000/oz. If you have not entered the gold market, waiting for an opportune time might be too late. Keep in mind that regardless of what the media is telling you, gold is still cheap at these levels." -CNBC Squawk on the Street
NICK MOORE, Chief Metal Analyst -- ABN Amro
"$1 000 gold is by no means an outrageous forecast. It's a cocktail of positive stimuli for gold, you get the spillover of people buying into commodities, whether its copper, aluminum, soft commodities or precious metals. People are moving there." - Fin24.com
PAUL VAN EEDEN, Managing Partner -- Cranberry Capital LLC
"While my model indicates gold should be fairly valued at $900, there's no reason to believe that gold wouldn't dramatically overshoot that mark. And if 1979 to 1980 is anything to go by, it could exceed several thousand dollars per ounce." -Bloomberg
JON NADLER, Investment Products Analyst -- Kitco
"Gold prices actually started their life at $35 per ounce in the early 1970s. From there, it went to $850-$875 -- a twenty-five-times-over move. Gold began its latest move up at $252, so prices at $6,250 can't be ruled out either, in terms of magnitude of the move." -Marketwatch.com
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The list is growing weekly, email us your favorite expert quote on $1,000 plus gold and we'll post them in this space.
Other major analysts bullish on $700-$850 gold:
J.P. Morgan's senior analyst forecast that gold may reach $800 per ounce sometime in 2007.
Goldman Sachs says gold may average $785 an ounce in 2007.
GFMS Ltd., one of the foremost precious metals consultancy, stated investor buying over the last quarter of 2006 "could drive the gold price back through the $700-mark."
Baker Steel Capital Managers stated that gold prices may reach $700 per ounce by the end of 2006 and surpass the record high of $850 high set in January 1980.
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