RE: Slide #31: pbi1402 near term partneringGUYS>>> for god sakes... PUT THEM ON IGNORE... save us all the BS
A few things.
First of all, I listened to the presentation, I am not sure I heard Pierre say he was revising overall revenue for 07, I thought he was referring to the revenue contribution of the division.... at least that was my interpretation when I heard it. They have roughly $7mm in the books between Q1 and Q2 already, kinda hard to believe they cant meet the $15mm goal...
Second, while there is no doubt in my mind that its important to build a steady revenue stream sooner than later, I am not long this stock because of the company's revenue prospects for Q3/07 or even Q4/07 for that matter. I frankly dont care that much if its $1mm or $5mm as long as the projects are developing, I care about progress and the aggregation of the larger deals that get us to $40mm next year and double that the following year. We have made substantial progress towards those goals in the last year.
We all know Pierre has had a pretty ...uh-hem... optimistic view... at times, and he has certainly let us down repeatedly in the past with respect to timing. BUT, the very nature of this business model at this stage of progression, has a naturally bumpy and uncertain revenue profile.... and we are hostage to that until the revenue gets large enough that a timing issue doesnt matter.
Look at the Tecpar deal PLI did in Brazil in its own right. In the press release PLI said that deal would likely contribute $3mm CDN between Q3 and Q4 /07... and $8mm to 2008 Revenue.... JUST THIS DEAL. Do I really care if this first $3mm hits in Q3/Q4/07 or Q1 / 08 ?? Of course you always want things to develop as promised... but it aint a reason to sell the stock, as long as the deal comes together properly and the revenue flows.
Dont get me wrong, the discussion about any substantial change of revenue flows for the next two or three quarters is valid, especially considering the cash position of the company. However, its absolutely clear to anyone that this company is truly at a positive inflection point. It is firing on almost all cylinders in terms of imminent catalysts and opportunity and it is in the process of being revalued by the market. I would certainly like to see the revenue meet or exceed expectations , but if the timing is too far off, there shouldnt be any difficulty raising cash again if needed, and it certainly wouldnt give me cause to sell....
One last thing to add. There has been alot of discussion about the relevance of the upcoming BLOOD / ASH disclosure, and whether its only going to be a scientific review or summary of the preliminary data already released by the company.
I know definitively that the ASH Review board holds this issue to a very high standard. They specifically review the relevance / importance of clinical results, and they particularly ensure that the data in whole or in part has NOT previously been announced so that they keep the integrity of their conference at the highest level. I know definitively that Prometic went thru this process as part of their application and obviously they were chosen.
Bottom line, while I think the preliminary data was fabulous, and arguably under-appreciated by the market, I think its safe to say we are getting novel data at this conference and the considerable valuable exposure that comes with it.
Great to see the good support continuing on good volume, especially in light of all the BS and weakness in the broader market....