GREY:GULSF - Post by User
Comment by
snafuron Nov 12, 2007 6:39pm
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Post# 13795613
RE: Rig move announced
RE: Rig move announcedTo be honest, I am much more curious about the results from the 21/8 well from Lundin, where the Galaxy II is currently finishing drilling and tests.
They started drilling September 9th there, it took longer than I expected, even with counting in delays because of the harsh weather lately.
I am curious not because I have some stake in there, but because GUL had an option to farm into this well and has chosen not to join in late 2006, I think.
For the Ridgewood well, Lundin has a similar timeframe, according to the Kingfisher bulletin.
So it may happen that we will see the Maria well spud (by Petro Canada using the Arctic III rig) while we are still drilling Ridgewood into next year.
Maria has an 80% chance of success, question is only the size of the pool(s).
With Ridgewood, we have our first structural play after two misses on stratigraphic plays.
Looks more promising from the chances, as I see it.
Thinking positive:
180 million barrels of oil there
GUL has 10% = 18 million barrels
lets calculate each barrel with 1/4 of $80 oil:
18 million * $20 = $360 million
Fully (more than fully) dilluted per share:
$360 million / 100 million shares
results to $3,60 per share
And Maria is also about more than 100 boe, if it comes out good.
So, two misses until now. Next two hits and we could be above $5.
Within the next 3 months.
Another miss, another dip.