more 1402 pressKIDNEY DISEASE - Anemia Management Alternatives Score Again
KIDNEY DISEASE
HEALTHIOS: A Weekly Pulse on the Global Healthcare Industry
for the week of 12 November 2007
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Anemia Management Alternatives Score Again
Just a couple weeks ago we saw bright prospects for third-generation anemia management drugs. Now one great hope of that generation, Hematide, has posted strong Phase II results. The drug restored hemoglobin to its target range and eliminated the need for RBC transfusions in patients with pure red cell aplasia (see story below). Only a week prior Prometic published similar positive news with regards to its pre-clinical data for PBI-1402.
So you’d think Affymax and Prometic would be enjoying the wind at their backs. Both stocks have certainly recovered from their lows in mid-August (the index below is a synthetic of both stocks), but the rise in value appears to be tied more with the restructuring events at Amgen, then in the company events at Affymax or Prometic. Positive clinical announcements from both companies were either expected or had little impact, whereas the Amgen restructuring had a strong impact on Affymax and Prometic value. One conclusion may be that investors are improving their probabilities that market share for anemia management will be available to new entrants. Amgen has created a large anemia management market. When bundling arrives, and we believe it will prior to the approvals of Hematide (Affymax), PBI-1402 (Prometic), and FG-2216 (Fibrogen), anemia management will be part of the bundle. In a bundled environment, other therapies add ressing anemia management will likely get an increasing share. The net-net is that investors appear to be tying the success of new anemia management entrants to Amgen’s ability to protect market share.