RE: How the US could stagnate for years...The primary problem with the US economy is the trade deficit. All the current problems stem from that problem. And the primary reason for this trade deficit becoming as bad as it is, is because other countries have purposely debased their own currencies in order to maintain their trade advantage. Japan started this in the 1990's, and since then we have China, Taiwan, Russia, and others - even Canada - who have copied that model in some form. This has prevented the US from getting out of this deficit. All this cash is leaving the US ecomomy and its slowing down since you need cash to keep it going. Interest rates are now being lowered, not so much to add new cash to the market, but to keep the banks from failing by helping more folks avoid foreclosure. But as the US lowers interest rates, everyone follows (to maintain their trade advantage). When the Canadian dollar reached $1.10 US, the Bank of Canada lowered interest rates - not because the Canadian economy is weak - but to keep the export industry from imploding. This of course impedes the ability of the US to correct its trade deficit. But there is a limit as to how far this can go. Eventually, the US will HAVE TO ELIMINATE its trade deficit. Period. And it appears the only way that this can be done is by forced change through some form of legislation (i.e., trade tariffs). Once that happens, all those economies that depend on trade surpluses to be healthy, will go into recession or depression.
As for waiting for a time to invoke forced changes to trade, my suspicion is that the US financiers and Government would prefer to let inflation ride a little while longer in order to reduce the burden of cumulative deficits and of future obligations. Whatever the reasons, or whatever the outcome, the end result is not going to be good. Major life style changes are coming for pretty well everyone.