TSXV:CAV.H - Post by User
Post by
henkh73on Dec 18, 2007 9:31pm
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Post# 14042668
future looks okay!
future looks okay!From Mineweb:
https://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=42265&sn=Detail
COPPER
The analysts said they favor copper "as the most defensive, yet aggressively pro-cyclical, China-centric industrial metal." While noting that copper spot prices have fallen below $3/lb., Hill and Wark also affirmed that "medium/long-term dated futures have rallied, suggesting: 1) Metals traders believe a U.S. recession will be shallow, with little spillover to China or 2009/10; and 2) Replacement cost is $2.50/lb."
Other factors highlighted in the Citigroup analysis of copper revealed that November imports were up in China, while Shanghai inventories have declined 57% from October peaks. Smelter TC/RCs are settling low even though there is more available spot concentrate. China Minmet and Jiangxi Copper have agreed to buy out Northern Peru to access resources in Peru. Finally, the cancellation of the Galore Creek project development by NovaGold and Teck Cominco illustrates "the difficulty of developing large, low-grade deposits in remote locations," according to the analysts.
Hill and Wark found that metals futures have been more durable than spot. "This explains why the equities have been insulated and defies headline fears of falling demand from development economies."
Meanwhile, "the futures market suggests the mean expectation is for copper to remain above $2.60/lb ($5,700/T) for the next five years," Citigroup said, adding that "new copper projects probably require $2.00 - $2.50/lb., depending on views of political risk.