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Artaflex Inc V.ATF



TSXV:ATF - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Comment by musingon Dec 19, 2007 7:16pm
50 Views
Post# 14048943

NotINTheKnow

NotINTheKnow
Re: 1) it is easily found on the web that Marti was CEO of Aimtronics which went out of business 2001-2002 timeframe

Yah, so. That doesn't mean that the problem that led to Aimtronics failure was a management problem, which I assume is your point. It may be the case, and I don't know, that Marti kept the business solvent for far longer than a less capable CEO.

So, notintheknow that's a red herring.



2) the CM they bought is located in the highest cost region of the US. This entity added little to Sales as evidenced by recent quarter financials. The smart EMS firms have been moving out of the high cost markets into low cost regions because their substantial costs are related to "labour" and "facilites".

&

3) if they were enlightened they would have bought a facility in Mexico or an interest in an offshore facility.

Yes and no. Somethings are very high cost but lots of labour is cheap. Moreover, there is a growing phenomenon of firms selecting local electronic manufacurers because proximity is an advantage from a number of perspectives, including follow up warranty work. Show me the costs. I, certainly, don't know what they are.

Mari has said that things should ramp up down south in the 1st quarter of 08. So, your point isn't particularly pertinent.




4) ATQ is clearly moving in the wrong direction.

That is arguing by assertion and not analysis. I could just as convincingly respond by saying that ATQ is moving in the right direction? In other words, you point 4) adds nothing.


5) the fact the share price hovers at $0.10, and has lost 75% or its' value in the past year is sufficient evidence that Mgt has failed. Should they wait until the share price hits $0.02 before a change is made?

The serious retreat of stock price is a clear signal that there is trouble. No question the company is challenged. I accept that and would point out that no one has doubted that. The issue is not whether the company is challenged but rather what do we do at this point? You say the stock price will go to .02c. I accept it could go there but I also accept that it could go higher. Indeed the fact that institutional lenders are willing to let their investment ride does provide a rational basis for optimism. So, this isn't about Musing. Once again, your point that we are headed to .02c is (yet again) mere assertion and not analysis. Unless you can tell us more, which is how all this debate began between you and I began, I think it would be irrational for anyone to be swayed by your opinion because it is very, very likely to be less, much less, informed than that of institutional lenders.


6) the Lenders are stuck. ATQ is probably making their interest payments. If the Lenders pull the plug they could be subject to litigation. They have to hope for a rebound because they would get little if the plug were pulled. Besides A/R the only significant asset is Inventory. The portion which is bare components, unlike WIP, is probably less than 40%.

Lenders are generally not stuck. Lenders will do what is in their financial interest. They will cut their loses and move on, if they think that on balance its better to cut its losses. The rest of your analysis is just sheer baloney. What would be the basis of litigation?????? Lenders pull the plug all the time without litigation. I have no idea what your points are re A/R and WIP. That doesn't speak to the issue of why lenders aren't pulling the plug. Rather, it speaks to the issue of where the lenders would find value if they pull the plug.

7) surely there are new Contract announcements they could be making. Yet no - Investors are kept in the dark.

We know that even when ATQ went into the black, for a few quarters, it was generally not announcing contracts. It may well be that what is nourishing ATQ these days are a cumulation of smallish contracts, which understandably is not raw material of an announement. I have been assuming that ATQ has not been getting new major contracts. The basis of this was ATQ's announcement that it had lost a major contract. It would follow that ATQ would announce the acquisition of a major new contract. All that being said, the real question is whether Marti's optimism about 2008 is warranted and whether we will hear about new contracts over the next 3 or 4 months.

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