ITG is making a mistakeI think ITG is making a mistake, for the reasons I'll give below, but they were the main seller this week--I think they sold close to half a million shares this week (I'm not yet sure of the exact figure, because I can't get the updated house positions for today's trading yet, but I'll have it soon). Once they've unloaded everything they plan on unloading, the SP will firm up.
ITG is probably reacting to the recent news in Bolivia, which appears to be unfavorable, but I don't think it's really going to affect APE, and in fact, it might actually be favorable. First of all, there's not going to be a civil war, because that would only happen if the new constitution actually becomes law, which it hasn't. First it has to pass a vote in the assembly and then go through 2 popular votes, and that whole process is not expected to be complete until at least September 2008. But all the upheavel it has caused so far makes it less likely it would pass.
Secondly, this latest turmoil has demonstrated that there are limits to what Morales can do, and I'm sure he's well aware of that, too. Just the changes he's tried to enact so far have created big problems that he's had to deal with which prevent him from dealing with the problems he was elected to fix. And the Bolivian people are an impatient bunch--they've already gotten rid of several leaders in quick succession in the last few years who failed to fix those problems, and Morales knows that if he tries to make too many drastic changes so that there's too much opposition and nothing actually gets done, then he'll be the next to go.
So I don't think there are going to be any changes in store for the mining sector in Bolivia, and whatever happens there politically, APE will be able to just continue (and increase) production at La Solucion and prove up the resources at Paca and Pulacayo. If Morales gets voted out (he's already suggested a referedum on his presidency), then the new government will be more moderate, which will be favorable to APE, and if he stays, the political dynamics I mentioned above will allow APE to continue operating uninterrupted. So I think that the price ITG has brought us down to is an overreaction and doesn't reflect the real risk/reward ratio of APE, and with ITG out of the way (once they stop selling) and drill results coming in, we should see some nice gains in the near future.